FXUS61 KBOX 160544
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1232 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A STRONG COASTAL STORM
MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
HIGH PRES MAY BRING A RETURN TO DRY BUT COLD WEATHER NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LEFT OVER SCATTERED BRIEF FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NH...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES IN MA...AS WELL AS
FAR WESTERN CONNECTICUT SHOULD COME TO AN END TOWARD DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BLUSTERY AND UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED AND WED NIGHT
AS SNE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE MARITIMES AND
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY. CAA IS WEAKENING DURING THE DAY WED
BUT STRONG GRADIENT AND WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT GUSTS TO
35 KT.
UPDATE...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO START OFF THE DAY ACROSS SW NH/NW
MA...BUT FEEL THEY WILL RETREAT INTO NY STATE BY MID MORNING.
TIME SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WED EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF BKN CU. ALSO...A FEW FLURRIES OR A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER
MAY SPILL INTO THE BERKSHIRES SO HAVE A 20 POP IN THIS REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SECONDARY FRONT WILL DELIVER A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WED NIGHT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS SECONDARY FROPA SO ANOTHER PULSE OF
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AS THE ARCTIC AIR RUSHES IN. WIND CHILLS BY
THU MORNING WILL LIKELY BE DOWN TO 5 TO 10 BELOW IN THE NW HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH INTO THE EARLY
PORTION OF THIS WEEKEND RATHER WELL...BUT PROBLEMS CROP UP
THEREAFTER. NOT A LOT OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN SEVERAL MEMBERS
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD. APPEARS TO BE TWO GENERAL SOLUTIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ONE THAT BRINGS AN INTENSE STORM UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THOUGH
PASSING SE OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE THE OTHER KEEPS A RATHER
WEAK SYSTEM PASSING S OF BERMUDA. LATEST 12Z RUNS DO NOT GIVE MUCH
CLARITY TO EITHER SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME CONSISTENCY IS SEEN ON THE
ECMWF BUT A BIT FURTHER EAST.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS SHOWING COLD HIGH PRES ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUING TO PUMP ARCTIC AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE
BLOCKING LOW REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN MARITIMES. WILL REMAIN COLD
AND DRY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MAY REBOUND JUST
A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...APPEARS TO BE TWO CAMPS
FOR MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE HPC GUIDANCE AND A BIT OF THE
ECMWF. THE EC AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 00Z OP GGEM...BRINGS A
STRENGTHENING LOW UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A SPOKE WRAPPING AROUND
THE STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THIS...AS THE
12Z OP GGEM IS NOW WEAKER AND FURTHER S WITH ITS SOLUTION.
IN ANY EVENT...HAVE BROUGHT IN CHANCE POPS TO THE S COAST LATE
SUNDAY...THEN ACROSS E MA/RI/NE CT SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME MIX
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST TO START OFF WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AS SOME MODELS BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE OTHERS TRY TO LINGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN AREAS DURING THE DAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS WILL AFFECT MANY OF OUR TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD FLURRIES
DEVELOPING IN THE BERKSHIRES. NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT EXPECTED WITH
A FEW G35 KT POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MORNING WITH SOME EASING OF THE
WIND IN THE AFTERNOON AS CAA WEAKENS.
WED NIGHT...VFR WITH SCT-BKN CU IN THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT
REDEVELOPING LATE AS SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT
THURSDAY-FRIDAY MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING TO MVFR IN DEVELOPING SNOW...MAINLY E
OF A LINE FROM KMHT-KORH-KHFD. MAY MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE ALL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WED FOR NW
WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE WED MORNING WITH BEST CAA...THEN WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FOR A TIME ACROSS ALL BUT EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
SECONDARY FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER PULSE OF GALE FORCE WINDS
WED NIGHT. WE EXTENDED THE GALES INTO WED NIGHT FOR ALL WATERS
EXCEPT BOS HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KT...BEST
CHANCE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. NW GUSTS UP TO
30 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 KT...MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO N-NE AT NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ230-236.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...KJC/EVT
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...FRANK/KJC/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/KJC/EVT
