FXUS61 KCAR 250715
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
215 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. A LARGE TROUGH 
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO THE MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND TRACK NORTH INTO OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC OVER THE WEEKEND AS
COOLER AIR FOLLOWS. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. A RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY PROBLEM IS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT IT WILL BE
VERY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE THIS MOISTURE. HAVE USED THE GEM TO
POPULATE SKY COVER GRIDS. FOR POPS HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM...GFS AND SREF. WILL KEEP POPS AT A MAXIMUM OF 40 PERCENT
SINCE MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS. ALSO EXPECT WHATEVER
PRECIPITATION OCCURS TO BE VERY LIGHT. HAVE USED A GFS/NAM BLEND
FOR QPF AMOUNTS. THE WIND...TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS
GENERATED WITH GMOS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY BUT
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL KEEP LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW CLOUDS THOUGH SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND HEAD NORTH TOWARD MAINE ON
FRIDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN ON FRIDAY. RAIN WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY END THE RAIN
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES
OVER. 
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS COOLER
AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE LOW ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. SOME SNOW
BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY GIVE A SMALL ACCUMULATION TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. FURTHER EAST
RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COOLER AIR
MOVES IN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH INTO QUEBEC SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING RETURNS. A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST MAY BEGIN
TO APPROACH WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...OR WET SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN...
LATE TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY.
GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN VARYING AMOUNTS
OF LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BEFORE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE INITIALIZED THE WIND GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE NAM12 AND THE GFS40. WILL INCREASE WIND SPEED A FEW KNOTS
ABOVE MODEL BLEND INTO THIS EVENING IN NORTHEAST FLOW. FOR WAVES:
THE WNA RUNNING 1 FOOT BELOW OBSERVATIONS . SPECTRAL DATA
INDICATES EVEN MIX BETWEEN WIND WAVE AND INCOMING LONGER PERIOD
GROUP FROM FETCH WELL TO EAST OF WATERS. SPECTRAL DENSITY FROM
44027 INDICATES A LITTLE MORE ENERGY FROM WIND WAVE SO SUSPECT
MODEL WINDS A LITTLE LOW. HAVE POPULATED GRIDS WITH WNA/4. WILL
RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT. WILL NEED TO EXTEND SCA. WINDS STILL
GUSTING TO MID 20S SO WILL KEEP GENERIC SCA.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED
TO A GALE WARNING ON SATURDAY AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE
LOW. WINDY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/BLOOMER