FXUS64 KSHV 240951
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
351 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE FOUR STATE
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. SURFACE
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW IS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS
WITH THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN TO SOUTH OF HOUSTON. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER WIDESPREAD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS IS BEGINNING TO BE OBSERVED
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
SHREVEPORT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE...AND SHOULD LEAVE THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LUNCHTIME. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN LINGERING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THESE INTENSE STORMS AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR STATE REGION WITH WIND AND A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
BEHIND THE FRONT THE AREA WILL SEE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE INTO
THE REGION. WINDS DURING THE DAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUSTAINED AT OR AROUND 20 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS POSSIBLE. AS SUCH...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HAVE EXTENDED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO 06Z
TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS EVENING. IT MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED EVEN FURTHER IN TIME...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS
MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WITH THESE WINDS THE AREA WILL SEE A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWFA BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA
BY MID EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID
AND LOWER 20S NORTHWEST TO FREEZING SOUTHEAST FOR TONIGHT.
THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTING INTO THE CWFA RATHER
QUICKLY. IN THE MEANTIME THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT UNTIL THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE KICKS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTHEAST TO PULL THE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WILL RESULT
IN RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THIS EVENING.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS AS IF LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EL DORADO
ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO JACKSONVILLE TEXAS LINE WILL BE
ABLE TO SEE SNOW...MAYBE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AROUND THAT LINE AND
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH. LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH SHOULD SEE PRECIP
REMAIN ALL RAIN BEFORE THE MOISTURE KICKS OUT OF THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WILL SEE SNOW COME TO AN END BY
DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS DAY. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 4-6 INCHES
FOR OUR FIVE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR MORE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A TYLER TEXAS TO TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO
ROSSTON ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH...IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR IT WILL
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END BY DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TO GIVE DRIER
WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND FREEZING
EACH NIGHT. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 50S OR COOLER.
THINGS BEGIN TO BECOME INTERESTING AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THAT
LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD BE AROUND FREEZING.
THIS COULD BRING SOME SORT OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA DURING THE NIGHT PERIODS AS THIS SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. TIMING AND DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENTS
BETWEEN MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...
WHAT A DAY ON THE AVIATION DESK. CURRENTLY DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINAL SITES BUT WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE A BREAK ACROSS THE NE TX TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM EAST OF GYI
TO NEAR TRL AND CRS DOWN TO CLL WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. MAY NEED TO PREVAIL TSTMS ACROSS
MLU/ELD TERMINALS BY TAF TIME BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH
COVERAGE IS ONGOING AT 11Z. WILL COVER ANY ADDITIONAL TSTMS WITH A
TEMPO GROUP THIS MORNING JUST EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. VERY STRONG
WINDS WILL BE SEEN IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS 30KTS. UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A
TRACK NEAR THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AND THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE A
BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WILL PROBABLY MENTION
SOME SNOW AT THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS BUT WILL DEFINITELY ADD SNOW TO
THE TXK TERMINAL NEAR 00Z. WRAP AROUND SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT.
/13/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 58 30 46 29 51 / 90 40 0 10 10
MLU 62 32 48 28 51 / 100 40 10 10 10
DEQ 52 25 43 25 45 / 100 70 0 10 10
TXK 55 28 42 29 48 / 100 40 0 10 10
ELD 59 30 46 28 51 / 100 40 10 10 10
TYR 51 25 44 29 49 / 80 40 0 10 10
GGG 54 27 46 27 50 / 80 40 0 10 10
LFK 55 28 50 27 53 / 70 20 0 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: ARZ061-072-073.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ060-061-070-071.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-017.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LAZ003>006-011>014-018>022.
OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: OKZ077.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ097-108>112-124>126-136-137.
&&
$$
22/13
