FXUS61 KBOX 110708
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
208 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL CIRCULATE BLUSTERY
AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WITH A
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION BY MONDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY BUT COLD...BLUSTERY
WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO ADD CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MA PIKE. THIS
IS IN RESPONSE TO LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS SPILLING OVER THE BERKS. ANY
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT. APPEARS LESS CLOUD COVER
SOUTH ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA AS LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY IS
WEST- SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST MATCHING UP WELL WITH LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ALREADY GENERATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
MID TEENS AT ORH/AFN/MQE. PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT AHEAD OF THIS
EARLY SEASON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...DRY BUT BITTERLY COLD WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS
YIELDING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
STRUGGLE TO HIT THE FREEZING MARK WITH INLAND LOCATIONS ONLY CLIMBING
INTO THE 20S. AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SNOW COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE TOO LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN AXIS IN THIS RUN SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. DECIDED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVING TROUBLE WITH TIMING OF SYSTEMS ACROSS
THE LOWER 48...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
SIGNALING THE EVOLUTION OF A GREENLAND BLOCK...WHICH USUALLY MEANS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND LONG WAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
POSSIBLE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRES/FRONTS THAT MAY AFFECT THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS SW NH/NW MA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WILL SEE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BLUSTERY...
THOUGH WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS HAPPENS...WINDS
BACK TO SW AND WILL CUT OFF THE LAKE CONNECTION ENDING THE
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE BERKS/MONADNOCKS. DAYTIME HIGHS
FORECASTED TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
SUNDAY...CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THE APPROACHING PRECIP THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS HIGH PRES PUSHES OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO HEAD INTO THE REGION AS WINDS BACK TO
S-SW...THOUGH THIS BRINGS TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TIMING OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...THOUGH
APPEARS THAT MIXED PRECIP WILL PUSH IN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
LOW MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC AND A WARM FRONT ALSO HEADS N.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WIDE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
THOUGH THEY ARE TRYING TO SIGNAL ANOTHER LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS SHOWING A BIT MORE
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND A BIT CLOSER TO THEIR ENSEMBLES...WHILE
THE EC AND NAM STARTING TO ALSO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
GEFS. DID LEAN TOWARD A BLENDED SOLUTION ALONG WITH CONTINUITY WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TIMING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE MIXED PRECIP EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING LATE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...FOR NOW...USED A BLEND OF FORECASTS PROVIDED BY
HPC...WHICH IS SHOWING LARGE HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE BLOCKING OVER THE
MARITIMES. THIS COULD MEAN THAT DRY BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TODAY...
VFR WITH BKN CIGS040-050 AT TIMES. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM BOS-
ORH-ALB AND POINTS NORTHWARD MAY LOWER VSBY BRIEFLY TO 2SM ALONG
WITH CIGS025. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE VFR. STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ALL TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...
VFR WITH FREQUENT GUSTS 30-35 KT FROM THE WEST.
SATURDAY...
VFR WITH WEST WINDS NOT AS ROBUST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS DIMINISHING.
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN -RA/-SN AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT HEAD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG WEST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALL WATERS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY...HAVE CONTINUED GALE WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY...BUT APPEARS WINDS DIMINISH FROM W-E DURING THE DAY. HELD
ON TO GALES FOR THE EASTERN WATERS THROUGH THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LEFTOVER GALE SATURDAY EVENING THEN
REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WINDS DIMINISH. LEFTOVER
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM...BUT HAVE FORECASTED WINDS TO SHIFT TO E WITH SOME GUSTS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FT LATE IN
THE DAY AND AT NIGHT...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT MAY PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS DURING
THIS TIME. WINDS START OUT S-SW...THEN MAY SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE
LATE AT NIGHT. MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT AND BUILDING SEAS LATE
AT NIGHT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ232.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ231-233>235-256.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ230-250-251-254-
255.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ236-237.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...NOCERA
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...NOCERA/EVT - UPDATED 208 AM
MARINE...BELK/EVT
