FXUS61 KBOX 010224
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
924 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND CHILLY WEATHER WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND
DRIVEN RAIN TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
AT OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THERE IS EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THE SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AND WILL COMPLETELY
EXIT THAT REGION LATER TONIGHT.
AN ABUNDANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL HANG ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT EXCEPT THE CAPE/ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...WITH THE
MILDEST TEMPS ACROSS OUTER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. STILL EXPECT
THE LOW AT LOGAN /KBOS/ TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT.
MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES LATE IF THE
WINDS DON/T PICK UP AND SKIES CLEAR OUT RAPIDLY WITH A WET GROUND IN
PLACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WORKS OUT
OF NY STATE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE
ENERGY FALLS APART AS IT WORKS E. MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER SW NH/W MA AS THE SHORT WAVE
WORKS E IN THE FAST UPPER FLOW.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES QUICKLY E...
WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. OTHER THAN LEFTOVER
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NH/E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT W WINDS WILL START TO
BACK AROUND TO SW OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S...EXCEPT AROUND 40 ON THE ISLANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHILE WE EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN DRY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING
GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S. IT WILL ALSO FEEL CONSIDERABLY MILDER THAN ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AN
INLAND TRACK AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE OR EVEN A BIT WEST OF THAT REGION. THE TWO MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. WE WILL DISCUSS ALL THIS BELOW:
1) WIND POTENTIAL...
ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT
ON THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH AND OVERALL NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A 985 TO 990 MB LOW TRACKING
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
MORNING. THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW
STRONG THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES WHICH REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT. HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT IT REACHES BETWEEN 70 AND
80 KNOTS FOR A TIME THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE FALLS
OF 3 TO 5 MB IN 3 HOURS ARE EXPECTED. WITH ALL THIS SAID...FEEL
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. USUALLY
IN WARM SECTOR EVENTS THE STRONG WINDS ARE ONLY FOR A SHORT
DURATION...MAYBE 2 TO 3 HOURS THURSDAY MORNING. THE INVERSION WILL
LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY
CONVECTION MAY HELP TO BRING A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. THEREFORE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS MAY BE ACROSS INTERIOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SURGE TO OVER 60 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
2) MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY
MORNING...
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY
OVERLAP THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...WHICH ROUGHLY OCCURS AROUND 8
OR 9 AM IN THE MORNING. EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE WINDS BECOME AND
TIMING WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF OVER A 2 FOOT STORM
SURGE AT THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAYS. ITS TOO EARLY FOR
ANY HEADLINES...BUT THIS CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL AND A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
3) HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN. FORTUNATELY...THE
SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER SO WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A QUICK 0.75 TO 1.50
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS EXPECTED...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
STREET FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DO NOT THINK WE
ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD THUNDER THOUGH...SO JUST PLANNING ON
MENTIONING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. ALL THE RAIN
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE
SOME SUNSHINE BREAKOUT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ALL THE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A PATTERN
SHIFT TO THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST
MONTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
IN ADDITION...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS A LONG
WAY OFF SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
THE FIRST SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE JUST WILL
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE LOW CAN DEVELOP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST TO THROW BACK SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP AND HELP PULL THE
MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...ITS 5 DAYS OUT
SO IF THE TROUGH IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ADVERTISED THE PRECIPITATION
COULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN. FOR NOW WILL BE INCLUDING CHANCE
POPS AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE IF FROM THERE. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER FALLS WOULD MAINLY BE SNOW...OR PERHAPS RAIN CHANGING SO TO
SNOW ACROSS THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CIGS...EXCEPT AREAS MVFR CIGS ACROSS CAPE COD
AND ISLANDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. CIGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 5KFT ACROSS W NH/MA DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BRING
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IN HEAVY
RAIN...BRIEF STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A
PERIOD OF SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS DIMINISH FOR A BIT EARLY TONIGHT...THEN GUSTS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 25 KTS AGAIN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE
WATERS. SEAS CONTINUE UP TO 11 FEET UP TO BUOY 44008 AND 8 FEET AT
BUOY 44097 AT 21Z. HAVE KEPT SMALL CRAFT GOING FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS...THOUGH FORECAST TO END BY MIDNIGHT OVER VINEYARD SOUND AND
BUZZARDS BAY. HAVE ADDED THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT
AFTER 11 PM.
TUESDAY...NW WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS THE SMALL CRAFT WILL END ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS AROUND
MIDDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA ADVISORY LEVELS
AS WEAK RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS OVER 10
FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.
FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.
SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SCA OR PERHAPS EVEN A MARGINAL
AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST. CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT IS LOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS
RECORDED ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. THIS AFTERNOONS FORECAST
KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LOGAN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
12/2...WHICH COULD TIE THE RECORD. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32
IN BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON...WE
DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS
FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.
NOVEMBER WILL BE TOP 10 WARMEST... STATUS THRU 11/28
THERE ARE NO PROJECTIONS AS TO FINAL OUTCOME BUT A RANKING IN THE
TOP 10 WARMEST IS ASSURED FOR MOST OR ALL OF THESE 100 PLUS YEAR
LOCATIONS. RECENT TOP 10 WARMEST WAS 2006...ONE OF THE WARMEST
NOVEMBERS ON RECORD.
BELOW IS THE CURRENT AVG FOR THE MONTH FROM OUR PRELIMINARY CF6...AS
WELL AS THE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL...THE TOP 10 WARMEST RANKING AND
CLOSE WITH THE 2006 WARMEST NOV RANKING REFERENCE.
BOS 48.9 PLUS 3.7 RANKED A STRONG NUMBER 6 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
BDL 46.5 PLUS 4.4 RANKED NUMBER 5. 2006 WAS 4TH WARMEST
PVD 49.0 PLUS 4.9 RANKED A SOLID NUMBER 3. 2006 WAS 2ND WARMEST.
ORH 44.8 PLUS 4.8 RANKED NUMBER 4. 2006 WAS WARMEST EVER NOV
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231-232-235-
237-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/FRANK
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...FRANK/EVT
MARINE...FRANK/EVT
CLIMATE...
