FXUS64 KMRX 111935
AFDMRX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
235 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL RETREAT TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HIGH/MID
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OUT ALLOWING MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
EARLY TONIGHT...THEN CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. NAM SLOWER TO BRING THE PRECIP IN THAN THE
GFS...BUT SREF GENERALLY LEANS TOWARD THE GFS. THINK TIMING CLOSER
TO THE SREF/GFS LOOKS REASONABLE...SO WILL TREND THAT WAY. PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM ENOUGH FOR
ALL LIQUID PRECIP SATURDAY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH MAV TEMPS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE EXHIBITED VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THUS
STILL EXPECTING GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE LONG TERM WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. SYSTEM NUMBER ONE STILL ON
SCHEDULE TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. HAVE CONTINUED CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIP STILL EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY RAIN AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME-HEIGHTS DEPICT RELATIVELY DEEP WARM SURFACE
LAYER...SUGGESTING MAINLY RAIN FOR EVEN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
SYSTEM NUMBER TWO STILL ON TRACK TO APPROACH THE REGION IN THE LATE
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A
RAIN EVENT ALTHOUGH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN
PRECIP ENDING AS SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS. BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS DRY WITH TEMPS NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMO FOR THE MOST PART.
FOR TEMPS...MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MAV/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES
BASED ON ENSEMBLE TRENDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 26 43 37 52 38 / 0 90 100 40 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 19 39 36 47 39 / 0 50 100 50 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 19 40 36 48 40 / 0 50 100 50 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 10 44 34 45 37 / 0 20 100 70 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
LDW/LCM
