FXUS62 KTAE 030620 CCA
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...AS OF 11 OM EST WED NIGHT...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE FL PENINSULA...WITH JUST A DYING BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN FL BIG BEND. THIS
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WAS ESSENTIALLY JUTS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF...
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO THE NW OVER OVER MS AND
BEGINNING TO ENTER N AL. THIS IS LEAVING OUR REGION WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLOWLY COOLING CONDITIONS. OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED OFF DRAMATICALLY DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN LEGS WHERE THEY
HAVE BECOME LIGHT SW...BUT MSAS AND BUOY 42039 ARE BOTH INDICATING
A W-NW SURGE DEVELOPING WHICH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SCA
GOING ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WE STILL EXPECT A SHORT
BREAK IN THE VERY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC WX PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BEFORE THE NEXT GULF LOW BEGINS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR
WITH THIS STORM...AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW STAYS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SVR WX...BUT A COLD RAIN APPEARS VERY LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL
IN THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. IT IS
STILL A BIT PREMATURE TO HONE IN ON EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT A 1
TO 2 INCH RANGE APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE EXPECTING A COLD RAIN...THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY MIXED OR FROZEN PRECIP
THIS TIME AROUND...BUT CONDITIONS COULD BE A BIT MORE INTERESTING
WELL TO OUR N AND W...SO ANYONE TRAVELING TOWARDS BIRMINGHAM OR
ATLANTA SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THEIR LATEST FORECASTS. THIS SYSTEM
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE A FAST MOVER...WITH THE RAINFALL ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS TO
FOLLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS FAR AS THE ONGOING
HAZARDS ARE CONCERNED...WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ENDING BEFORE
SUNRISE COMBINED WITH THE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WILL GO AHEAD
AND END THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AT 4 AM EST /3 AM
CST THIS MORNING FOR OUR COASTAL ZONES...AND WITH THE NEW PREDICTED
SWAN SURF HEIGHTS DROPPING TO 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER 7 AM EST...DO NOT
SEE ANY GOOD REASON TO EXTEND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEYOND THIS
TIME. VERY EARLY SURFERS THIS MORNING MAY STILL CATCH A FEW HIGHER
SETS OF 5 FEET OR SO...SO CAUTION IS STILL ADVISED ALONG AREA
BEACHES.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PERIOD BEGINS WITH
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO ATLANTIC REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING. AT
LOWER LEVELS...A GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY TO THE NE
CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA AND TO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. SOME
MOISTURE MAY CROSS SE BIG BEND AND MAIN IMPACT WITH BE TIGHTER
GRADIENTS...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL WATERS AND COAST. OTHERWISE
LITTLE LOCAL IMPACT. IN ITS WAKE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS WITH US THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
WITH ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THEN...NEXT SHORT WAVE COMES OUT OF
THE GULF. THIS WILL STIMULATE A STRONGER SURFACE REFLECTION SO NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD RAIN INTO OUR CWA
TUESDAY AFTN THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOW EXITS EWD AND DRY AIR
FILTERS IN FROM W-E BY WED NIGHT. MAINLY IMPACT WILL BE ON MARINE
AREA WITH HIGH WINDS AND SEAS.
POPS WILL BE AOB ISOLD THRU MON NIGHT...INCHING TO WDLY SCT
OVERNIGHT INTO TUES MORN AND THEN INCREASE TO LOW AND THEN MID SCT
POPS TUES NIGHT THRU WED EVE. UNDER RELATIVELY CLOUDLESS SKIES MIN
TEMPS TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO 40-44) SAT NIGHT
INCHING TO NEAR CLIMO SUN NIGHT AND THEN WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SPREADING NEWD ACROSS GULF...MIN TEMPS RISE UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES NIGHT.
IN WAKE OF EXITING LOW...MINS WED NIGHT DROP TO 2-5 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO (CLIMO IS MID
60S) SUN AND MON THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TUES AND WED AS WINDS
VEER AHEAD OF GULF LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 06Z FRI.
IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY'S EXITING COLD FRONT...DRIER AIR WRAPPED
INTO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM NW TO SE. HOWEVER AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF MVFR CIGS IN STRATOCU WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS CWA DURING
PREDAWN HOURS YIELDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT LOWEST LEVELS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY E OF APALACHICOLA RIVER...WITH
PREVAILING OR BRIEF MVFR CIGS TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM W TO NW AND REMAIN ABOVE LIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST WHERE LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE MVFR CIGS
ARE FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING BY
14Z AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NE. EXPECT LIGHT N/NE
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THRU REST OF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DROP IN WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS...SHOULD BE ABLE TO ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7
AM EST THIS MORNING. THE BREAK IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
OVER THE MARINE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW
LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WITH YET ANOTHER GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH A COLD RAIN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...NO
FIRE WX CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...AFTER ALL OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUBSTANTIAL RISES ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...SINCE MOST
OF THE RIVERS BEGAN THE EVENT AT FAIRLY LOW LEVELS...ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE
IS ANOTHER RAINFALL THREAT FROM A NEW GULF LOW ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...THE SITUATION WILL STILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
THE SPECIFIC RIVER FORECAST INFORMATION FOR YOUR AREA CAN BE FOUND
ENTIRELY ONLINE AT
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 63 42 53 42 52 / 00 10 50 70 50
PANAMA CITY 61 44 55 43 54 / 00 10 40 70 40
DOTHAN 60 38 52 40 48 / 00 10 30 70 40
ALBANY 61 39 52 41 48 / 00 10 30 70 50
VALDOSTA 65 41 52 42 52 / 00 10 50 70 60
CROSS CITY 68 44 56 47 56 / 00 10 60 70 60
APALACHICOLA 63 47 55 44 56 / 00 10 50 70 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...AND GULF.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
/3 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...AND GULF.
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
/3 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON...
TAYLOR...AND DIXIE.
GM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
/6 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALL LEGS EXCEPT APALACHEE BAY.
&&
$$
AVIATION/FIRE WX/LONG TERM...BLOCK
PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
