FXUS61 KCAR 020900
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
400 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARITIMES THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY WEAK SFC TROF CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION ATTM W/ SFC AND
UPPER RDG OF HGH PRES JUST UPSTREAM OF THE AREA... RATHER CHAOTIC
AND DISORGANIZED CLD PTRN LEADING TO GENERALLY P/C SKIES ACROSS
THE FA ATTM...

UPSTREAM RDG TO BUILD OVER THE FA TDY THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA
ERLY TNGT AS DEEPENING LOW PRES LIFTS NEWRD TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE TN VALLEY. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP
SPREADING ACROSS FAR SWRN AREAS OF OUR FA AFTER MDNGT W/ PRECIP
REACHING FAR NERN AREAS BY 12Z. UPCOMING SYSTEM STILL XPCTD TO BE
A MAINLY RAIN EVENT AS MODELS ALL SHOW VRY WARM AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING
THE AREA LATER TNGT. SFC TEMPS MAY BE COLD ENUF TO YIELD SOME
PTCHY FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF FAR NRN AND NWRN
MAINE BUT SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...  
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY MORNING, TO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY
NOONTIME, AND THEN OVER THE HOULTON AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WARM
AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THIS EVENT MAINLY RAIN ON
THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS
WHERE SNOW COVER MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SNOW COULD FALL FROM A LINE FROM PRESQUE ISLE TO CLAYTON
LAKE NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME EXCEPT ANY ICE ACCUMULATION TO BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN
INCH BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING.
USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS OF TWO MAXIMUMS, ONE ACROSS DOWNEAST IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE OTHER ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS IN THE
DEFORMATION BAND. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN .75 AND AN INCH
WITH OVER AN INCH IN THE TWO MAXIMUM AREAS. WITH AN OPEN WAVE
ALOFT, EXPECT UPPER DRY SLOT TO MOVE ACROSS DOWNEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AT THAT TIME. WITH LOW
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS, RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE. AS LOW MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION, LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY KEEPING ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE STATE.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT DOWNGLIDE WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS DOWNEAST SECTIONS ON FRIDAY.

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WEST OF THE COAST THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL JET WILL
APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE SOUTH. BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP CORE OF
THE JET JUST OFF THE COAST WITH WINDS REACHING MINIMUM ADVISORY
LEVELS. HOWEVER, SOUTHEAST DIRECTION USUALLY HAS AN IMPACT ALONG
THE COAST SO WILL ISSUE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND
LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE DECIDING ON ADVISORY OR
WARNING.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARILY USED THE GMOS FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ALL THE
MODELS KEEP NEXT LOW PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SO WILL ONLY KEEP LOW POPS OVER DOWNEAST. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDS TDY INTO TNGT W/ CONDS BEGINNING TO LOWER THRU
MVFR TO IFR LATE TNGT/ERLY THU FROM SW-NE. IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
THURSDAY WILL IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WNDS/SEAS XPCTD TO REMAIN BLO SCA TDY INTO TNGT THEN
BEGIN TO INCRS LATER TNGT TO GLW CONDS BY ERLY THU...

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL DECREASE TO A SCA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH WIND WATCH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW
SHORT TERM...FOSTER
LONG TERM...FOSTER
AVIATION...KHW
MARINE...KHW/FOSTER