FXUS63 KIND 260802
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
305 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST EXPECTED TO 
GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND REGION BY MONDAY EVENING. 
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING 
THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 
MAJOR FEATURES. FORECAST FORECAST CENTERS ON POPS.

FOR TODAY...VORTICITY LOBE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA 
WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS. BASED ON ITS 
MOVEMENT...SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. 
OTHERWISE...MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON 
WHEN MODEL DATA INDICATE THE NEXT IMPULSE SHOULD BE APPROACHING 
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW 
SHOWERS ALL AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTHWEST. POCKETS OF 
CLEARING SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...WITH 
INSTABILITY CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN AFTER SUNRISE.

IN THE LATER PERIODS...DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BE MOVING 
THROUGH TONIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. STILL 
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS 
THE BULK OF THE UPPER ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME 
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1/2 TO 1 INCH RANGE AT THAT TIME BASED ON QPF 
PROGS OFF THE MODELS. PRECIPITATION THREAT SHOULD END BY SUNDAY 
NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES OFF TO THE EAST.

BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE 
A FEW DEGREES ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A BIT 
TODAY. REMAINDER OF THE PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 26/06Z TAFS
A BAND OF SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL 
INDIANA THROUGH 08Z OR 09Z WITH THE WORST OF IT TRACKING BETWEEN 
KLAF AND KIND.  BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE INSIDE THIS 
BAND...BUT SINCE TAF SITES ARE GETTING THE EDGE WILL FORECAST A FEW 
HOURS OF OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES. 

THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR REGION BY 09Z AND A DRY SLOT 
PUSHING INTO OUR REGION SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS 
WITH CIGS 35 HUNDRED TO FIVE THOUSAND FEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY 
SATURDAY.  MODELS BRING ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR 
REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY DROP BACK TO MVFR 
CATEGORY.  

STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS IOWA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THIS 
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GREAT 
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE SOUTHWEST 
FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAS
AVIATION...JH/RYAN