FXUS61 KALY 041155
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 AM EST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL END TO THE WORK WEEK AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.  HOWEVER...NEXT STORM SYSTEM WAS 
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL BEGIN TO TRACK 
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.  LATEST FORECAST SUGGESTS THE TRACK MIGHT BE 
A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE COAST AND PROVIDE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR 
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  DRIER WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER 
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERVIEW...LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY WITH UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON
BAY. ONE RATHER IMPORTANT SHORT WAVE WAS TRACKING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE LONESTAR STATE COINCIDING WITH AN INCREASE
IN MAGNITUDE OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS PER THE HOURLY RUC ANALYSIS. CONVECTION WAS
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...IN THE WAKE OF
THURSDAYS STORM...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES /ESPECIALLY ALOFT/. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN A SCT-BKN LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A MORE BACKING OF THE FLOW AS RIDGING
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO BUILD. A CLOSER LOOK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
STRATUS CLOUDS FROM THE TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST DOWN THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PROBLEM TODAY TO HOW EXTENSIVE
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL BE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TYX RADAR REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THE BROKEN BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS
MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28. LATEST RUC13 AND NAM12 REVEAL THE BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THIS
REGION THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS. REMAINDER
OF THE REGION...WE SHOULD START THE DAY WITH PTSUNNY SKIES BUT AS
DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
40S WHICH WE SHOULD ECLIPSE TOWARD LATE THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STRATOCU TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DACKS...TO LOWER 50S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
LITCHFIELD CT AND EASTERN WINDHAM VT.

THEN WE MONITOR WITH ANTICIPATION THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES QUITE CHALLENGING AS LATEST
DPROG/DT OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ARE TRENDING WESTWARD. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE TRENDS ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA...IT SEEMS THE
CONVECTION IS GETTING A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST DOWNSTREAM RIDGING MIGHT BE A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED. SO
AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF...THE TRACK WOULD BE A
BIT MORE NORTHEAST AS OPPOSED TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO SEEN
IN THE ENSEMBLE DATA FROM THE GFS WITH MORE MEMBERS NOW SUGGESTING
ITS QPF FIELDS FURTHER INLAND /THIS ALSO AGREES WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF/. THE SREF ENSEMBLES ARE EVEN MORE SUGGESTIVE WITH A FEW
MEMBERS PAINTING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OPERATIONALLY...THE NAM FGEN FIELDS /WHICH IS THE MODEL WE ARE
LEANING TOWARD THIS MORNING/ LINE UP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDING STRUCTURES
WILL EXIST LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES
MAINLY POINT TOWARD SNOW...YET BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MIGHT BE A
LITTLE WARM FOR A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THE VALLEY. THIS WILL
CHANGE AT NIGHT WITH COOLING OF THE COLUMN FOR ALL SNOW. PRELIM
THOUGHTS FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD RANGE FROM 1-3 ALONG THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WITH UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE ADJACENT NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEFORMATION DYNAMICS
THAT COULD ENHANCE SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN NY. FURTHERMORE...UPPER
JET MAGNITUDE INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 160KTS WITH THE EASTERN CWA
WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION.

AT THIS TIME...WE WILL NOT HOIST ANY HEADLINES BUT WILL RAISE
AWARENESS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.  

NEW 06Z NAM HAS JUST ARRIVED. THE QPF AXIS SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THE HALF INCH ISOHYETS IS ACROSS ADJACENT NEW
ENGLAND WITH THE QUARTER INCH LINE ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER. THIS
SUGGESTS WE ARE NARROWING THE WINDOW OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPCOMING
EVENT. 

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SUNDAY LOOKS BETTER WITH ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND DRY WEATHER. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY
FOR THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DACKS WHERE WE
WILL PLACE A LOW CHANCE POP AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON SNOW
COVER...HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH DOMINATES THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY 
STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHALLOW
WAVE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS TO LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY
...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND HEADS OUT TO
SEA TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM 
THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER
MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW...APPROACHING 
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...SPREADS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY
SNOW WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR FLOWS IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT WILL ALSO GET A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS IT COOLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING SOME SLEET MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIP CHANGES 
OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT..WITH 
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MIXING AND TURNING TO 
RAIN IN THE HUDSON VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE UPPER 
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

IT WILL BE A BIT ON THE COOL SITE FOR THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
WHEN WE CONSIDER THE WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN HAVING THE LAST FEW
DAYS. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 
HIGHS FROM THE LOW AND MID 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND IN THE
LOW AND MID 40S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...ACTUALLY FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR ALBANY. IT WILL THEN COOL SOMEWHAT WITH THE 
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS
AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE CATSKILLS
TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. AND HIGHS THURSDAY...
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...
ARE LIKELY TO ONLY BE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MID 30S.
IT MAY BE A BIT WARMER IN THE LOWER HUDSON AND HOUSATONIC
VALLEYS WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE. 

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING ASIDE FROM A SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS 
OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER WESTERN NEW 
YORK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCATTERED WITH DOWNSLOPING AND 
SUBSIDENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE HUDSON VALLEY. SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS...WELL AHEAD OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER FLORIDA... 
ARE FORECAST TO STREAM INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KNOTS 
DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY EARLY 
EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... 
SAT...VFR CIG...CHC MVFR/SCHC IFR IN --SN MAINLY FROM KALB SOUTH 
LATE IN THE DAY AND SAT NITE.
SUN/MON...VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUE...MVFR CIG. CHC MIXED PCPN. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING RANGED FROM ABOUT AN 
INCH TO 2+ INCHES. THE METTAWEE RIVER AT GRANVILLE CAME TO WITHIN
A HALF INCH OF FLOOD AROUND NOONTIME...BUT HAS SINCE DROPPED 
NEARLY A FOOT. HOWEVER IT WILL TAKE LONGER TO REACH ITS PEAK 
FLOW NEAR WHITEHALL. THE RAIN ALSO CAUSED A THREE FOOT RISE ON
THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER...AND THE SACANDAGA RIVER ABOVE THE
RESERVOIR WAS EXPECTED TO RISE A LITTLE OVER TWO FEET. HEAVY 
RAIN IN THE CATSKILLS CAUSED SHARP RISES OF SEVERAL FEET ON 
THE HEADWATERS OF THE SCHOHARIE AND ESOPUS CREEKS BUT THEY
HAVE SINCE RECEDED. THERE WILL BE A MINOR RISE OF ONE OR TWO
FEET ON ON THE MOHAWK AND HUDSON RIVERS THIS MORNING...THEY 
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD. THE HOUSATONIC RIVER IN WESTERN
CONNECTICUT WILL RISE ANOTHER SIX INCHES AT GAYLORDSVILLE.
BELOW THE STEVENSON DAM THE HOUSATONIC SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 
THE 8 FOOT ALERT LEVEL. 

THE RIVERS WILL BE ABLE TO RECEDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR TODAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE REGION...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE EAST
COAST...WILL BRING SNOW RATHER THAN RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEXT POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WILL COME AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...RCK
AVIATION...RCK
HYDROLOGY...RCK

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY