FXUS62 KTBW 261822
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR AND
COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
OVER THE NATURE COAST WITH MID 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 OR SO ALONG
THE COAST SOUTH OF THERE.
 
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN A BIT
MORE EASTERLY. AFTER A COOL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
IN THE 60S...LOOK FOR LOWS BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30S FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION. THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WE
GET WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW THICK THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE...AND WHETHER OR NOT WINDS ARE ABLE TO GO CALM. AT THIS
TIME...I EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST...AND AM COUNTING ON THE CIRRUS TO BE THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW
GOOD COOLING.
 
WE WARM UP A BIT ON SATURDAY...BUT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
OUR NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 OR SO TO THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED FORECAST
WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON THE EVOLUTION OF A STRONG TROUGH.
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS NOW BUT DO CONTINUE WITH
POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE LOW
CUTTING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TAKING A VERY FAR SOUTHERN
TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS FARTHER SOUTHERN TRACK WILL LIKELY
BRING BETTER DYNAMICS INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME. HOWEVER BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
LIFT THE H5 TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS THIS HAPPENS IS LIKELY THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
WITH DETAILS STILL IN LIMBO WILL JUST ADJUST THINGS SLIGHTLY TO
REFLECT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION...REDUCING
POPS ON TUESDAY AND INCREASING THEM ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO HAVE ADDED
A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE CURRENT
SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AND PERHAPS ADDED
LIFT FROM THE STRONGER DYNAMICS. THIS SYSTEM MUST CERTAINLY BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS IT COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS. LOW CIGS HAVE ERODED
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RSW AND FMY AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS IT
WILL END QUICKLY THERE TOO BY 19Z. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE VFR AT
ALL SITES AND DRY AIR WILL PREVENT ANY STRATUS OR FOG TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST HAZARDS WITH 10-15 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS
7 FEET EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... FINALLY MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO TURN NORTHEAST...THEN EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
FINALLY SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE 
REGION ON FRIDAY AS VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE 
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE
A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITIES A BIT ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON SATURDAY...WITH
RED FLAG CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
REGION. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM HILLSBOROUGH AND
POLK COUNTIES SOUTHWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  65  44  68 /   0   0   0   0 
FMY  51  68  45  71 /   0   0   0   0 
GIF  45  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0 
SRQ  50  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0 
BKV  38  63  34  67 /   0   0   0   0 
SPG  53  64  51  68 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-POLK-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JOHNSON