FXUS62 KFFC 010935 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
435 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A GULF LOW
PUSHES INTO SOUTH ALABAMA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THE
EVENT WILL START OUT AS A STABLE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNS A COOL NE WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THEN AS THE GULF LOW
PUSHES NEWD ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO TENNESSEE...EXPECT A WARM FRONT
TO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN ITS WAKE. DESPITE
CLOUDS AND RAIN...EXPECT MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA TO CLIMB INTO THE 200-500 RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CAPE VALUES SEEM LOW...EXPECT FAVORABLE LARGE- SCALE
ASCENT AND HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT ON- GOING STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH...THAT SHOULD QUICKLY TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. FAST MOVING
ORGANIZED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH
HELICITY VALUES ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SMALL TORNADOES.
IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... AND GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
WEST POINT TO ATHENS LINE WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW...
THE CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MUCH HIGHER. STILL EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND RIVERS. WILL UPDATE THE HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK (ESFFFC) PRODUCT THIS MORNING...AND SUGGEST THE DAY SHIFT
FOLLOW WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS PRODUCE
PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTH GA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER... TEMPS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY
WINTRY MIX. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED THIS RUN. THE
GFS IS DEVELOPING ANOTHER GULF LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON SATURDAY. THIS WOULD SPREAD AMPLE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES NORTHWARD
INTO GA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PREFER THE ECMWF THAT DEVELOPS
THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA/SC COASTS AND TRACKS IT UP THE ATLANTIC
COAST... RESULTING IN MUCH LESS IMPACT HERE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS WARMED
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS FOR MOST AREAS... THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE
REMAINS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW IF ADEQUATE MOISTURE CAN BE
POOLED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...SUSPECT MOISTURE
WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO SEE ANYTHING BUT A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL SUNDAY-MONDAY
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO KICK EAST OF THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE PREVAILED OVERNIGHT...AND 
WITH WINDS LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...VSBYS COULD DROP TO MVFR IN SOME 
AREAS. NW WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NE AROUND 12Z...AND BECOME EAST 
BY 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH CLOUDS 
MOVING IN TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL 
PICK UP LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH 
SOME AREAS SEEING 25KT OR HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 06Z. RAIN WILL BE 
MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTA AREA 
BY 06Z. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED EARLY WED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA WED...BUT HAVE HELD OFF INTRODUCING CB/TS 
IN CSG AND MCN TAFS FOR NOW.

31/LEG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          59  44  52  45  58 /   0  90 100  50  10 
ATLANTA         57  44  56  42  54 /   5 100 100  40  10 
BLAIRSVILLE     56  39  51  39  51 /   0  80 100  60  10 
CARTERSVILLE    58  43  55  41  54 /   0  90 100  50  10 
COLUMBUS        60  51  65  45  61 /  10 100 100  20  10 
GAINESVILLE     56  43  50  43  54 /   0  90 100  50  10 
MACON           62  51  64  45  62 /  10 100 100  40  10 
ROME            58  44  54  42  53 /   0  90 100  50  10 
PEACHTREE CITY  58  46  61  41  55 /   5 100 100  30  10 
VIDALIA         65  51  68  47  62 /   0  90 100  60   5 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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