FXUS61 KCLE 291151
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING 
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW MUCH SUN WILL WE GET...AND WHEN 
WILL THE RAIN REACH THE AREA.  RIGHT NOW ONLY CIRRUS OVER THE AREA 
WITH STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  MODELS NOT AS 
AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN THE STRATUS TODAY.  IN FACT SHOULD SEE PLENTY 
OF SUNSHINE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THUS LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY 
WARMER MAV FOR TODAYS HIGHS.

ALMOST NO PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM NOW...BUT MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
DEVELOPING SOME RAIN TOWARD EVENING ACROSS NW OH.  SO WENT LIKELY NW 
OH LATE.  DROPPED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR AKRON-YNG AREAS FOR THIS 
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
TONIGHT.  THICKNESSES SUPPORT ALL RAIN BEFORE 09Z...BUT WILL BE A 
PERIOD EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF MINUS 5C TO MINUS 
6C...THAT THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT A LITTLE SNOW.  HIGH TEMPS ON 
MONDAY WILL BE EARLY...WILL HAVE STEADY OR EVEN FALLING TEMPS TO 
DEAL WITH ON MONDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES OVER  THE LAKE. 

FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY NIGHT IS HOW FAST WILL THE NEXT SYSTEM 
ARRIVE AND WHAT DIRECTION WILL THE WINDS BE FROM. BY 00Z TUESDAY THE 
WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST.  GFS MOVES NEXT FRONT THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT WITH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z TUES...WHILE 
THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.  LEANED TOWARD THE 
GFS SOLUTION SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO ECMWF TIMING.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  
THAT SAID LAKE EFFECT SNOW END BY TUESDAY EVENING AS INVERSION DROPS 
AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST 
STATES BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGINNING TO FORM A CONSENSUS THAT KEEPS 
THE MAIN ENERGY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. STILL SHOULD SEE A LITTLE 
BIT OF MOISTURE WORK UP THIS WAY FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT 
WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DEVELOPING. THE MAIN AREA OF 
CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NW PA...ESPECIALLY ERIE COUNTY WITH A WSW 
FLOW DEVELOPING FOR THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS 
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK. 

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT ABOVE AVERAGE BUT IT WILL BE 
THE LAST DAY THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BY FRIDAY SOME OF THE 
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL SPILL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS 
REMAINING IN THE 30S INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
APPEARS THAT THE ONLY LOCATION TO WORRY ABOUT SOME MVFR FOG WILL
BE IN THE KTOL AREA. ELSEWHERE WINDS HAVE REMAINED UP ENOUGH TO
KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING. STILL SLIGHTLY CONCERNED ABOUT SOME
STRATUS WITH THE FIRST MIX THIS MORNING BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY AS THE
SUN RISES. 

OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD GET A GUSTY...UP TO 22 KNOTS...FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST
OF A KCLE TO KCAK LINE. LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TAKE A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR RAIN WITH IT
BEGINNING OUT WEST AROUND 21Z THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. AFTER IT
BEGINS THERE LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 9 HOUR WINDOW OF LIGHT RAIN.
AFTER THE RAIN OCCURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST UNTIL THE RAIN STOPS. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE AFTER THE RAINS END.

THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AS THE
RAIN ENDS FOR THE KCLE AND KCAK AREAS THAT SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR MONDAY AND EARLY TUE. VFR WILL RETURN TUE NIGHT
INTO WED. NON VFR DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS AN AREA 
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO LAKE ONTARIO 
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT WITH W TO 
NW WINDS INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOOKS AS IF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE. THE 
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SPILLING ACROSS LAKE 
ERIE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN 
INCREASE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GALES FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY 
NIGHT. MORE ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN