FXUS65 KSLC 120520
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1020 PM MST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF MOIST BUT RELATIVELY MILD PACIFIC STORM 
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST EVIDENT ON BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PRECIP
IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

WHILE THE AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST AND WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...MOST OF THE CWA
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
ABOUT MOVING ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE STATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP...WITH THE GFS FOCUSING
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP ON NORTHERN UTAH...AND THE NAM LIGHTING UP THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FINALLY THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH UTAH ON SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKING TO BE
FOCUSED ON NORTHERN UTAH AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY THROUGH
THE AREA...THOUGH THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD DO QUITE WELL WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST EARLIER THIS EVENING TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 06Z...AS
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN SWATH OF PRECIP WILL NOT BE THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. 

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 
6000 FT AGL BY 6Z...AND REMAIN AT LEAST THAT LOW THROUGH THE DAY. 
CIGS MAY BECOME MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN 9Z-18Z. THERE 
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW AFTER 10-11Z 
CONTINUING THRU ABOUT 18Z SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OUT 
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 
TIMES. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FOR 
     UTZ518.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FOR 
     UTZ001-UTZ002-UTZ003-UTZ004-UTZ006.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM MONDAY FOR UTZ007-
     UTZ008-UTZ009-UTZ010-UTZ517.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FOR UTZ015-
     UTZ016.

WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SCHOENING
AVIATION...HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)