FXUS64 KLZK 012028
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
228 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SURFACE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ALONG/BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR RAIN TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH THROUGH EAST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE
WIDESPREAD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING LESS THAN A 10 DEGREE VARIATION FROM
OVERNIGHT LOW TO DAYTIME HIGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH WILL
LIKELY LEVEL OFF AND BEGIN FALLING AROUND MID DAY...WITH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FALLING IN THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. MOST
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE MID
40S.
ACROSS THE NORTH...RAIN WILL START TO MIX WITH SNOW AS EARLY AS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIP
WILL COME TO AN END...BUT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
AT THIS POINT...GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. AT BEST...COULD SEE A VERY LIGHT
DUSTING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. IT/S DOUBTFUL THAT
ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WOULD MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS IT
APPEARS THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE REGION BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES.
THIS INITIAL SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE UPPER LOW WILL PLUNGE
TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE 30S IN THE NORTH...AND WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 40S IN THE SOUTH.
A SECONDARY...MORE POTENT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AS UPPER TROUGH DIVES DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT WILL BE FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS TEXAS. COULD
STILL SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT GIVEN LOW PRECIP PROBABILITY WILL KEEP ALL MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
LOOKS AS THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST
TWO NIGHTS...WITH A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE. TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTH AND WEST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN INTO THE
REGION AND CLOUDS DECREASE.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. WINTER IS HERE...
...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS ANYWAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TO START
THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE MOST OF THE
PERIOD...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. MODELS INDICATE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALTHOUGH MUCH DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN THE
PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS TO START THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...BUT DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS IN THE MODELS...ONLY
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 37 43 30 42 / 60 90 40 10
CAMDEN AR 41 46 34 47 / 80 90 20 10
HARRISON AR 34 40 27 39 / 40 70 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 41 46 33 46 / 80 80 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 41 46 32 46 / 80 90 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 41 44 34 45 / 80 90 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 39 45 31 45 / 80 80 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 43 30 39 / 40 70 30 10
NEWPORT AR 39 44 31 43 / 70 90 40 10
PINE BLUFF AR 41 45 34 45 / 80 90 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 36 44 29 43 / 70 80 10 10
SEARCY AR 40 44 29 45 / 80 90 20 10
STUTTGART AR 41 45 33 45 / 80 90 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...60
