FXUS66 KMFR 262110
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
110 PM PST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTHERN
OREGON COAST. SHORT WAVES MOVING UP THE FRONT CONTINUE TO SLOW
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS...BUT IT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN OREGON COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL NOT BE A
PARTICULARLY WET OR WINDY SYSTEM...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT THERE
WILL BE ANY WIND OR PRECIPITATION RELATED WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST FROM PORT ORFORD NORTH AND IS
NOW SPREADING INLAND. 

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM THE CASCADES WEST. THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...COAST RANGE...AND THE MT. SHASTA
AREA.  

THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHEAR AS IT MOVES THROUGH...FORMING
A CUTOFF LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS CUTOFF WILL NOT
PLAY A ROLE IN THE MEDFORD CWA WEATHER...BUT SHOWERS WILL END FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE RESIDUAL NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA. 

A STRONG RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS WILL
BRING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW EVENT WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PEAK SUNDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THAT THE HIGH HANGS TOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...THE INCOMING FRONT WILL BRING IN MVFR TO VFR CLOUD 
DECKS AND OBSCURATION OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE TO VFR JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM 
        PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY 
        FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL NOON PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ350-
        PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST SUNDAY 
        FOR PZZ376.

$$

15/10/16