FXUS64 KHGX 292105
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
305 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE WACO AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FRONT AND AN
ACCOMPANYING 10 TO 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP IS STILL ON SCHEDULE TO
MOVE INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO WARM ABOVE THE MID TO UPPER 50S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG NORTHWEST MEXICO MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND
1 INCH WITH ISOLATED SPOTS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE POSSIBLY
RECEIVING 2 TO 3 INCHES. CLEARING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER NIGHTS AND MILDER DAYS UNDER
ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A WARM UP. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS TODAY WITH CLOUD DECK 4000 TO 5000 FEET. WILL SEE CIGS
LOWER AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE COAST
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AT
THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY.
46
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SOUTHEAST WIND WITH SEAS REMAINING IN THE 4 TO
5 FOOT RANGE. STRONG COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST AND
ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS
PICKING UP FROM THE NORTHEAST...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP. SURFACE LOW THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDS BECOMING
NORTH...THEN NORTHWEST. MODELS STILL UNCERTAIN ON HOW MUCH LOW
DEEPENS AND HOW QUICKLY IT PULLS AWAY...BUT WINDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN
MAINLY ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED FLAGS FOR THAT PERIOD.
SOME CONCERN FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AS WELL...BUT AGAIN
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE GULF LOW
DEVELOPMENT. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT TO GIVE AN EXTRA
HEADS UP FOR POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY ON TUESDAY.
46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 51 56 43 50 41 / 90 60 40 70 60
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 57 47 52 42 / 90 80 50 70 60
GALVESTON (GLS) 60 60 53 53 47 / 90 90 60 70 60
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...46
