FXUS64 KMEG 142129
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
329 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CHICAGO TO TEXARKANA TO
FORT WORTH. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY COLD I.E. ARCTIC.
SINGLE DIGITS WERE NOTED OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA. THIS COLD AIR
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BECOME MODIFIED SOMEWHAT ON TUESDAY
THUS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 40S.
ISENTROPIC SURFACES INDICATE THAT NO UPGLIDE WILL OCCUR HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHEAST MS WILL BE NEAR SATURATION.
THEREFORE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE TOMORROW
SEEMS REASONABLE. IT MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL I.E. LESS THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AFTER FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF REALLY
DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER DUE TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THAT IS NOT DEPICTED IN THE GFS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY IS LOW
DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS.
AC
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES. CURRENT
BAND OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD AS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH MEM...MKL...AND JBR. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TUP BETWEEN 04-08Z. DRIZZLE ALSO EXPECTED AT
KTUP. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT
THAT MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BACK IN THE JBR...MEM...MKL IN THAT ORDER
LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY MORNING. GUSTS WILL BE 15-20
KNOTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
LOCATIONS.
JAB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 35 42 26 46 / 10 10 0 0
MKL 34 41 22 44 / 10 10 0 0
JBR 31 40 22 42 / 10 0 0 0
TUP 41 46 29 48 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
