FXUS64 KJAN 081619 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1019 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS HAS TAKEN SHAPE NICELY
THIS MORNING WITH WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING...EVIDENT BY THE 60
DEGREE DEW POINT AT MCCOMB AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING S/WV AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS ALONG STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT. THIS AFTERNOON AS
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION CONTINUES EXPECT INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE...WITH GFS/12Z SHOWING MUCAPE 750-900J/KG AREAWIDE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SBCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 700J/KG OVER SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR 60-70KT...AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35KTS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH FOR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN AREAS IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.
GOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS SITUATION WELL...ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS ALL ZONES WEST OF A
MIDWAY TO BELZONI TO SHELBY LINE. ALSO MADE SLIGHT INCREASE TO HIGH
TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST WARMING TRENDS. STILL
EXPECTING MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 75 SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATES ARE POSTED. /BK/
&&
.AVIATION...NOT A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING...ESPECIALLY FOR VFR PILOTS
AND AIRCRAFT. ANTICIPATE LOTS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY TRIES TO LIFT
NORTH FROM THE COAST. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE AROUND THROUGH MIDDAY IN MANY
AREAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE AERODROME THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
HIGHER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 68 51 51 29 / 100 79 8 5
MERIDIAN 67 51 59 29 / 100 91 9 6
VICKSBURG 73 48 52 29 / 100 62 7 4
HATTIESBURG 71 57 62 33 / 100 86 15 4
NATCHEZ 74 51 53 28 / 100 58 6 4
GREENVILLE 65 44 46 26 / 100 59 7 4
GREENWOOD 66 47 52 25 / 100 72 8 5
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-075
&&
$$
BK/17
