FXUS62 KCAE 251019
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
519 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG SHEAR TO NORTH OF WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS
APPARENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CAE CWA FROM BURKE COUNTY, GEORGIA TO
ORANGEBURG COUNTY AND CLARENDON COUNTY IN THE SOUTH MIDLANDS. A
TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SOUTHERN PART UNTIL NOON
THIS CHRISTMAS DAY. WILL UPDATE PUBLIC PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT 50-70 KT AT 3-5 KFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER A SURFACE WEDGE THIS MORNING. COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES
UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE 50S SOUTH WILL INCREASE AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO MAINLY THE 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE THE 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. PRETTY STRONG SURFACE
BASED WEDGE SHOULD KEEP REAL STRONG WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO
SURFACE. MORNING NAM LIS MAINLY +10/+15. LIS DECREASE TO NEAR ZERO
THIS AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME STRONG WINDS 3-5 KFT SHOULD HAVE
DECREASED TO 35-45 KT AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD HAVE
DECREASED AS WELL. SO LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
MINIMAL AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM SHOULD ZIP COLD FRONT TO THE WEST QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. RAIN
EXPECTED TO MAKE QUICK EXIT AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM
THE GULF REGION AND INCREASE CLOUDS. NOT MUCH MOISTURE BUT WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH PORTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAKES THE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AS
TROUGH DEEPENS OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER
FLOW THEN STRAIGHTENS OUT TO NEARLY ZONAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. 
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVES BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BUT AIRMASS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH BY
EARLY NEW YEARS EVE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MIXED WITH A
LITTLE SNOW NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. ANYWAY...COLD DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING INTO THE CWA
TONIGHT. 88D REGIONAL COMPOSITE SHOWS HEAVIER SHRA ACRS ERN AL/WRN
GA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING IN THE REGION BY
MORNING. CURRENTLY NO LIGHTNING SHOWING UP IN SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS
PREVAILING ACRS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO
LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK AS HEAVIER PCPN APPROACHES. MAIN ISSUE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WIND SHEAR. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NE/ENE FROM 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS ARND 20 KTS. VWP SHOWS WINDS AT 2K FT 35 TO
40 KTS AND AT 3K FT FROM 40 TO 50 KTS. MODELS INDICATE STRONG LLJ
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARD MORNING OF ARND 70 KTS AT 5-7K
FT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TOWARD MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM
FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO
MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AS AIRMASS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FRI
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMES WEAK UNSTABLE. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. BY FRI
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACRS THE CWA AND
CLEARING WILL BEGIN. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW RAPID DROP OFF OF
MOISTURE ACRS THE REGION AND EXPECT SOME SUN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION 
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ015-
     016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...07
NEAR TERM...07
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...