FXUS65 KBOI 302159
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
258 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOG PERSISTED THROUGH 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LONG VALLEY...WHICH HAS SINCE 
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE FOG TO REFORM IN THE SAME AREA LATE 
TONIGHT. THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTH THIS 
EVENING...BUT THE THINKING IS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH 
TO HAMPER THE FOG. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN BAKER AS WELL. 
OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN FROM THE NORTH 
ON TUESDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT STAYING WELL 
TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION TUESDAY 
AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS COOLING BACK DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO ON 
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS 
UP TO 25 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD 
WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON 
THURSDAY.  THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES.  BY FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH A PATTERN 
CHANGE COMING FOR THE WEEKEND.  FRIDAY MODELS STILL IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS AND COOLING 
TEMPERATURES.  FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO REAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN 
THE MODELS WITH LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHICH MODEL SOLUTION WILL 
END UP BEING RIGHT...BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON.   ENOUGH 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE TO COOL BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 
DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT IF WE GET THE MODIFIED ARCTIC 
AIRMASS TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION...BAND OF MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA 
TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION.  CAN 
EXPECT ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF A 
KBKE-KMYL LINE.  CLOUDS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
LATE TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT COULD SEE VALLEY 
FOG RETURN BY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT KMYL AND KBKE.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JA/LH
AVIATION.....JA