FXUS63 KDLH 092324 CCA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
524 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
GUSTY SFC WIND IS SUBSIDING AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
ENDING AND WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND...THE BLSN IS ENDING. MVFR
CIGS.VSBYS IN NW WI WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 06-08Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009/
DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WINDING DOWN WINTER STORM AND WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM CONCERN IS SMALL SYSTEM AFFECTING FORECAST AREA ALONG TEMP TRENDS
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW HAS TAPERED
OFF TO FLURRIES OR HAS ENDED. THE REMAINING HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE WHERE A GRAVITY WAVE HAS SET UP
ALONG THAT AREA. AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS SNOW SHOULD END THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING UP FOR SOUTH SHORE
COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE SNOW. SINCE THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF
ALONG SOME DECREASING IN THE WIND...WILL DROP THE WARNINGS FOR THE
NORTH SHORE AND ADVISORY FOR THE REST OF MN COUNTIES. WILL WATCH
FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT ALONG NORTH SHORE AS INDICATED BY RUC
ANALYSIS. NEXT CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ARE THE WIND CHILLS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS WILL
PUT MOST OF THE MN COUNTIES IN A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WITH READINGS
-25 TO -35. THE SOUTHERN CWA WI COUNTIES ALONG WITH PINE COUNTY
WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NEXT CONCERN IS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY
WILL BE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF MN COUNTIES BUT WI WILL BE
CLOSE. THIS CAN BETTER DETERMINED TOMORROW WITH LATER MODEL DATA
AND TRENDS. A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE COLDEST
BEFORE A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
EXTENDED...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AREA WILL BE UNDER WAA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. UPPER FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN A BUCKLE OCCURS SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS SOME FGEN FORECAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS OUR CWA. WE ADDED A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR CWA...EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTH.
MODELS DIVERGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT BOTH WOULD SUGGEST A
CHANCE FOR SNOW...ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE SOME DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER MICHIGAN AT 17Z...AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
CONTINUED OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALL OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 MILES OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND WERE EVEN LOWER NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.
OVERALL...VSBYS WERE HIGHER OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM KBRD TO KHIB TO KCDD. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT RAISING VSBYS...BUT
KEEP UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. MVFR CEILINGS OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -6 7 -5 9 / 40 10 10 10
INL -14 1 -12 3 / 10 10 10 10
BRD -10 6 -9 7 / 10 10 10 10
HYR -4 5 -8 9 / 40 10 10 10
ASX 3 8 -3 10 / 70 20 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140-141-
148.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140-141-
146>148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ146-147.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ142>145.
&&
$$
GSF
