FXUS63 KSGF 260907
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...OVERVIEW...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN WITH TEMPERATURES AND
THEN SHIFT TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES/TIMING/TYPE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CURRENTLY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS CURRENTLY SWINGING
THROUGH MISSOURI WITH CURRENT CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. CLOUD COVER EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CWA FROM NEAR WARSAW
TO SALEM AND WAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THERE
THAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES.  

...SHORT TERM...
IN THE SHORT TERM...AREA OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE OZARKS TODAY WITH THE
WESTERN AREAS REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. HOWEVER...EVEN WITHOUT
THE CLOUD COVER...COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT
WIND. CLOUDS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SHOULD CLEAR EAST OF THE
AREA BY TONIGHT. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES TANK EARLY IN THE
EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURE DROP LEVELS OUT. WILL CONTINUE MID 20S
TO AROUND 30. MODELS ADVERTISING A QUICK WARMUP ON FRIDAY WITH
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND 850 TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE TEENS OUT WEST. MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING
FAIRLY SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH THOUGH SO WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE A BIT
FOR FRIDAYS HIGHS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SO HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

...LONG TERM...
FOCUS SHIFTS TO PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTING AT SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER THE WESTERN
CWA. ECMWF AND GFS COMING TO A MORE UNIFIED SOLUTION THAN WAS THE
CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THROUGH
QUICKER AND SHIFTING THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE CWA BY EARLY
MONDAY. COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$