FXUS63 KLMK 050801
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND 
LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
WILL STREAM NORTH INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND APPALACHIAN 
MOUNTAINS. SOME MOISTURE MAY REACH THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST AND SOME LIGHT 
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY SO WE WILL 
MENTION WORDING ACCORDINGLY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT 
WITH A DECREASE IN THE NORTHWEST WINDS.

WITH THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... 
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. 
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY - FRIDAY)...

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS OF EXISTING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME 
AS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL PATTERN. 
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 
BROAD 50H TROF HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF CONUS.  

TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION FOR THE OHIO AND 
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THIS WEEK. THE FIRST WILL SWING THROUGH 
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY...QUICKLY EXITING TO THE EAST BY MONDAY EVENING.  THIS 
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME LIGHT 
SNOW MIXED IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. WE THEN CATCH THE WARM SECTOR OF A SECOND...MORE POTENT SYSTEM 
THAT ENTERS THE REGION A MERE 24 HOURS LATER. WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST 
WINDS USHERING BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE 
LOW PROGGED TO RACE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 
HIGHER...BUT ON ITS PRESENT TRACK...THIS LOOKS TO BE MINOR FOR OUR 
AREA IN COMPARISON TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT 
FALLS WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM...THOUGH AFTER THE COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE PASSES...SOME SNOW WILL 
FALL BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY ENDING AS THE SYSTEM 
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST. 

MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 40S...THOUGH 30S WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE 
COLD FRONT.  LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S AHEAD OF THE 
MIDWEEK SYSTEM...THEN DROP TO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THURSDAY 
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO 
VALLEY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH 
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY 
BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09 AND 15Z AT BWG AND LEX. STILL CLOUD BASES 
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY BUT VSBYS MAY DROP BRIEFLY INTO 
THE MVFR RANGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JA
LONG TERM.........JBS
AVIATION..........JA