FXUS63 KICT 081150
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
550 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE WINTER STORM TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAIN PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS NOW MOVING INTO NM WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 290K SURFACE. SNOW HAS STARTED TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE PV
ANOMALY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
CENTRAL KS(KRSL-KSLN) WILL SEE THE HEAVIER SNOW TODAY WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. WITH SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...FEEL SOME SNOW WILL MIX-IN THIS
MORNING AT KICT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET FOR KCNU. AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES SE KS...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER SE KS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT IFR AND LIKELY LIFR CIGS WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
BY 00Z WED THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE KS/MO LINE
WITH THIS LOW EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KS.
LAWSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/
DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ONGOING SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY-TONIGHT:
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AHEAD OF A STRONG
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS LIFT CONTINUES TO
SATURATE THE MAIN DENDRITIC ICE GROWTH LAYER...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW ONGOING FOR MOST AREAS TO THE NW OF HUT TO MARION LINE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS ALONG A BAND FROM GBD TO SLN...WHERE MID LEVEL
THETA-E CONVERGENCE IS THE STRONGEST. EXPECT THIS WIDESPREAD BAND
OF SNOW TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE 12Z TO 21Z HOURS AS LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN PV ANOMALY MOVES ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. EXPECT
SOME OF THE SNOW TO BECOME MODERATE WITH SOME WIDESPREAD BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOW AS COUPLED JET STRUCTURE LEADS TO SNOWFALL RATES
POSSIBLY REACHING AN INCH AN HOUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS FROM HUT
NORTH TO RSL...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS ALONG A GREAT BEND TO SLN
LINE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT FINAL SNOW TOTALS...AS LACK OF
WIDESPREAD UPRIGHT LIFT KEEPS SNOW BANDING TO A MINIMUM WITH MORE OF
A WIDESPREAD SNOW AREA. SO HAVE DECIDED TO TWEAK SNOW TOTALS DOWN
SOME...WITH AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
FURTHER TO SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW...SHALLOW COLD AIR LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN MODELS ARE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT...SO WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEPING LOW LAYERS SATURATED...COULD SEE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AS COLD AIR
KEEP ICE CRYSTALS/SNOW FROM FORMING. SO NOT SURE MANY AREAS WILL
ACTUALLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
NEAR PPF/CFV. THE REST OF THE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. SO WILL KEEP THIS ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE WARNING
AND KEEP AN EYE ON SURFACE TEMPS TODAY.
EVEN WITH THE LOWER SNOW TOTALS...WILL KEEP WINTER STORM WARNINGS
GOING IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW AREAS...AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL KS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AS IT
PULLS INTO SOUTHEAST KS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR.
WED-THU:
EXPECT THINGS TO WIND DOWN RATHER QUICKLY ON WED...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPS
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER. MAX
TEMPS ON WED WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS
WITH THIS SNOW COVER...WITH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE MID 20S IN
SOUTHEAST KS. THE COLD AIR REALLY SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THU
AM...WITH LOW TEMPS OVER THE THICKEST SNOW COVER IN CENTRAL KS
FALLING TO AROUND MINUS 10.
KETCHAM
FRI-MON:
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON A SPLIT FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF
THESE PERIODS WITH ONE SHORTWAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A SECOND TRACK DOWN ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT ON A
FAST MOVING PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS NW TX/NORTHERN OK FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO SE
KS BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE THAT ANY PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. FOR THE WEEKEND THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN SWINGING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOOKING AT
PREVIOUS RUNS OF BOTH MODELS...IT APPEARS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL. THEREFORE WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE WILL LEAVE
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT.
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMP TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THESE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
SLAMS SOUTH.
LAWSON
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...AS SNOW FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SNOW HEAVY AT
TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
DURING THE DAY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION THE SLIDE NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY SUNSET. STRONG GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ALONG WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
JAKUB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 33 13 15 7 / 80 60 0 0
HUTCHINSON 29 8 14 5 / 100 60 0 0
NEWTON 30 9 13 4 / 100 80 0 0
ELDORADO 32 11 15 7 / 90 80 0 0
WINFIELD-KWLD 36 15 22 11 / 80 50 0 0
RUSSELL 21 2 11 -8 / 100 60 0 0
GREAT BEND 23 3 11 -3 / 100 50 0 0
SALINA 27 6 13 -3 / 100 100 0 0
MCPHERSON 29 9 14 3 / 100 80 0 0
COFFEYVILLE 42 17 27 12 / 80 60 0 0
CHANUTE 39 16 22 10 / 80 70 0 0
IOLA 38 16 20 9 / 90 80 0 0
PARSONS-KPPF 41 15 25 11 / 80 60 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ072-
095-096-098>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ068>071-
082-083-091>094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068.
&&
$$
