FXUS65 KLKN 051139
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
339 AM PST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NEVADA TODAY WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. 
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THRU
THE FCST AREA TODAY...WITH 700MB TEMPS FALLING TO -18C NORTH TO
-11C SOUTH BY 00Z THIS EVENING. A DECK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...SO ISOLATED FLURRIES SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF PRECIP IN
MOST AREAS... EXCEPT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EAST...FROM
JARBIDGE NORTH TO GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK SOUTH. THE 500MB
TROF...EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WILL
ROTATE THRU THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 03Z THIS EVENING.
A 105KT JET...AND A 600MB TROP FOLD...WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT
FOR WHAT LITTLE PRECIP OCCURS.

CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS THE MONTANA LOW RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE FCST AREA FROM
THE WEST MONDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY BE LIMITED BY THE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH ELIMINATE THE CHANCES FOR
DENDRITIC FORMATION. SNOWFALL WILL BE MAINLY OF A MORE DENSELY
PACKING VARIETY. BY 00Z TUESDAY SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD RANGE FROM
UP TO AN INCH IN VALLEYS AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT. REA

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE FORECAST FOR 
THIS PERIOD HAS TWO MAIN EVENTS. THE FIRST WILL BE BE ENDING ON 
MONDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NV/UT. AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL NV. CLOUDS DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE 
LOW PUSHES OUT OF THE REGION. WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN AFFECT 
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE 
SECOND EVENT WILL BEGIN AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP 
CLOUDS RETURN...AS WELL AS SOME PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF AND GFS 
BOTH HAVE 3-4 G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 700 MB RETURNING TO NV. 
THE EC/GFS/CANADIAN ALL HAVE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. FOLLOWED THE GFS BUFR SOUNDING DATA FOR SNOW 
LEVELS...RESULTING IN ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED POPS 
UPWARD AND BELIEVE THAT MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ON 
THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AS THE WEEKEND 
APPROACHES. 88
&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES TODAY AS A COLD 
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY AT KTPH WHERE WINDS 
WILL LIKELY GUST OVER 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE WINDS 
SWITCHING TO THE NORTH TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD 
BASES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET TODAY. 88
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

90/88/88