FXUS62 KFFC 070939
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 AM EST MON DEC 7 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD BACK IN EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIMITING THE EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF PRECIP INTO OUR AREA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
SUNRISE TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH GA. STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ ON TUESDAY...AS A POWERFUL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM OKLAHOMA TO
MICHIGAN BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOWING WEDGE/WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY ARRIVING BY EVENING WITH ~500
J/KG OF CAPE. STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR STILL
LOOK MOST IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
GEORGIA. THUS...IN ADDITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...A FEW TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND SEVERE THREAT MAY BE
REALIZED TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDER POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER EAST CENTRAL GA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WEST WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THIS HIGH WILL
BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC SETTING UP ANOTHER WEDGE
SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THIS TIME TAKING A MORE SOUTHERN...GULF COAST TRACK. GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER QUITE A BIT...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
THERMAL FIELDS LATE IN THE WEEK...SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
COOLER OPERATIONAL GFS AND ENSEMBLE MOS...WHICH BRING THEM A BIT
CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF.
RRH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 52 40 52 50 68 / 10 5 80 100 50
ATLANTA 54 44 54 54 70 / 10 10 80 100 40
BLAIRSVILLE 50 38 49 46 60 / 20 20 100 100 40
CARTERSVILLE 52 40 52 50 64 / 20 20 100 100 30
COLUMBUS 60 48 64 60 71 / 10 10 70 90 40
GAINESVILLE 49 42 49 47 65 / 10 10 100 100 40
MACON 60 44 64 59 74 / 10 5 60 80 50
ROME 51 41 52 51 65 / 20 30 100 100 30
PEACHTREE CITY 56 40 57 57 70 / 10 10 80 90 40
VIDALIA 63 43 67 60 73 / 10 5 50 70 50
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
