FXUS61 KALY 010205
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
900 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY TRIGGERING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN A POTENT AND FAST MOVING
STORM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH AREAS OF TERRAIN ENHANCED STRATUS OVER MUCH
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS. AN AREA OF CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OPENED UP OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SURRONDING AREA
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. AS THIS AREA MOVES EAST
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVER OUR REGION...AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ALBANY AREA...WITH GUSTS TO OVER 20 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR OR
TWO...DUE TO THE FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES AT 8PM WERE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK GOOD AS MUCH COLDER AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WERE PRESENTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY TAKE PLACE LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE WINDS
SLACKEN AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLEAR. USED THE RUC-13 AS A
STARTING POINT FOR UPDATING SOME OF THE SKY COVER GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME STEEP TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WHICH WILL RESULT IN LAKE
ENHANCEMENT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY BRINGING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS WITH SOME
UPSLOPE SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE TACONICS AND
BERKSHIRES TUESDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ENDING SHOWERS.
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A POTENT AND FAST MOVING
STORM WILL IMPACT REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ORIGINATE IN THE GULF...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND
TIMING OF STORM...WITH THE LOW REACHING WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK BY
12Z/THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION...RAIN...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. THIS STORM WILL BE A FAST MOVER AND THE RAIN WILL FALL
OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...PLEASE REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
FOR DETAILS AS TO FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY HOWEVER AN INVERSION WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO MIX VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME BRISK AND GUSTY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE
30S. THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY THEN HEAD NORTHEAST REMAINING OFFSHORE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO WHERE THE STORM INITIAL
FORMS AND WHEN. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. GOT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS STORM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CLOUDS FROM LAKE EFFECT WILL DRIFT OVER
KALB/KGFL THROUGH TUESDAY. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THIS FAR FROM THE
LAKE AND CIGS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO BE VFR. WITH LITTLE
PRECIP HAVING OCCURRED TODAY TO MOISTEN UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT WIND REMAINING IN PLACE WITHIN THE CAA BEHIND
THE SFC BOUNDARY...NO RADIATIONAL FOG PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR KALB/KGFL. KPOU SAW A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AND MAY CLEAR OUT A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE TWO NORTHERN SITES...DUE TO DOWNSLOPING AND
BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
DOESN/T SUPPORT ANY FOG THERE TONIGHT...AND DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN IT OCCURRING TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF FOR KPOU. SCT
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU ON TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THERE AS WELL.
AT ALL TAF SITES...WINDS WILL BE WON/T BE TOO STRONG /ABOUT 10 KTS
OR LESS/ THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT-THU...MVFR-IFR IN RAIN.
FRI-SAT...VFR...CHC OF -SHRA/-SHSN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS RANGED
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH OVER NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH OVER THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY. ANOTHER BAND OF AROUND A THIRD
OF AN INCH FELL FROM SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH TO NORTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...WITH A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. STREAM RISES ARE
FORECAST TO BE A FOOT OR LESS. WEB CAMERAS SHOW LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW ABOVE 2000FT MSL IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
CATSKILLS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL LIKELY EXCEEDING AN INCH...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH TOTAL FORECAST RAINFALL DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL IN A 6 TO
12 HOUR PERIOD. HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING ON THURSDAY MORNING. DRY...COLD WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SNOW. STREAMS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS MAY START TO SEE SOME RIVER ICE FORMATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...RCK
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...SND
