FXUS63 KBIS 260309
AFDBIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
909 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.UPDATE...I AM GETTING ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...
IN WARD COUNTY. THIS SHOWS UP IN SURFACE REPORTS...RADAR AND SAT
IMAGERY. I HAVE RAISED THE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO 12 TO 18
INCHES IN WARD COUNTY BY SATERDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
SHORT TERM...CHRISTMAS NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND ONGOING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO THE GRIDDED FORECAST WILL BE A MULTI MODEL BLEND.
ALSO...SINCE PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN...GRIDS WILL STAY
CLOSE TO NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER QPF AND SNOW
AMOUNTS.
CURRENTLY...A POWERFUL/VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SPINNING IN
PLACE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING WITH A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA.
HEADLINES WERE NOT CHANGED DUE TO WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT OR
BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS WIND SPEEDS GUST TO
40 MPH ACROSS THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. ALSO...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH
VISIBILITIES BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE AND ONE MILE WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER IOWA IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA. CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD SEE CONTINUED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A TROWAL OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS INTO THE REGION.
ON GOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES LOOK GOOD AROSE THE AREA AND WILL
LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
WE BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER MONDAY
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE EC CONTINUES TO INDICATE TWO DISTINCT CLIPPER SYSTEMS
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AROUND MID WEEK. THE GFS IS LESS
EXCITED AND CONTINUES TO STICK WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE SOLUTION
BUT STILL HINTS AT WEAK EMBEDDED ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA. WHICHEVER SOLUTION VERIFIES...IT WILL REMAIN COLD DUE TO THE
RECENT SNOWFALL AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING DURING THE
WORKWEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE UNCERTAIN AND WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE EMBEDDED WAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS
DEPICTED TO MOVE THROUGH. DID MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THE EC HINTS AT THE STRONGER CLIPPER MOVING INTO THE
STATE.
AVIATION...
A SURFACE LOW IN IOWA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHICH IS BRINGING
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW TO THE KJMS...KBIS...KMOT...KDIK...AND KISN.
MAINLY LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KJMS...KBIS...KDIK..AND KMOT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF MILE AT TIMES AND OCCASIONAL LOW
CEILINGS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KISN WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AT KISN SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ001-002-
009.
&&
$$
ABELING
