FXUS63 KMPX 100552
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1152 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.UPDATE...

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION ADDED BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM...SNOWFALL AND SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WANE DOWN 
THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO DOWNGRADE THE BLIZZARD WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THRU MIDNIGHT TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COMBINATION
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING...AND CONFINED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MN. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH IN OPEN AREAS
AT LEAST THROUGH 700 PM...THEN DIMINISH TO UNDER 20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOTORISTS TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. LOW PRES SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ADVERSE WINTRY/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDWEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AND WINDS 
REMAINING ABOVE 10 MPH...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL LOWER TO 25 TO 30 
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND AND 
CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY 
MORNING...MAINLY FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.  

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS LOWERING 
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SKIES WILL BECOME 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN 
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. 

THE LATEST MODEL RUN...SHOWED A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  MOST MOISTURE 
WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS 
GOING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 
TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVER THE WEEKEND. 

LONG RANGE MODEL TREND...SHOWED A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN 
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE 
CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO INDICATED SOME DISCONTINUITY...ONLY 
ON THE STRENGTH OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS. 

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

SFC LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTER STORM TO REGION YESTERDAY NOW NE OF
LAKE HURON. TERMINALS IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF
SYSTEM...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR CIGS HANGING BACK IN WC
WIS AND 4K TO 7K FT CIGS IN MN. LOOKING AT RUC RH AT H8...EXPECT
THESE 4K TO 7K FT CLOUDS TO HOLD IN AT MSP/RNH UNTIL 11Z AND EAU
TO 14Z. WILL THEN BE WATCHING WEAK UPPER WAVE FOR THE AFTERNOON
THAT LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS
CLOUD COVER OVER MT/ND RIGHT NOW IS HANDLED WELL BY THE GFS...AND
EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO RETURN AT AXN AROUND 15Z AND MSP 18Z. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MVFR CIGS WITH THIS RIGHT NOW...SO KEPT CIGS
MAINLY VFR WITH THIS BATCH OF CLOUDS...EXCEPT AT AXN/STC WHERE
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO EXIST. STILL LOOKS LIKE
FORCING/MOISTURE WILL BE TO SHALLOW...SO HAVE NO MENTION OF -SN AT
TAFS...BUT A STRAY FLURRY OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL SLOWLY DIE DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL SETTLE IN AROUND 10 KTS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH DIRECTIONS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 270.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
     BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-
     LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-
     NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
     STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW 
     MEDICINE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLUE 
     EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JVM/MPG