FXUS63 KGLD 301152
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
235 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE HOW WARM TO MAKE IT TODAY...FRONTAL TIMING
AFFECTS ON TUESDAY MAX TEMPERATURES...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS WITH TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND HOW COLD TO MAKE
IT BEHIND THE FRONT. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA WHERE SPLIT FLOW IS IN PLACE.
UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST HAS SUNK TO SOUTH OF THE BORDER. UPPER LOW
COMPLEX OVER EASTERN CANADA WAS SHIFTING BACK TO THE WEST AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST CANADA IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST.

AT JET LEVEL...THE ECMWF/UKMET DID BEST WITH THE JET SEGMENT THAT
RUNS FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM WAS TOO STRONG ON THE
WINDS. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST CANADA...MODELS WERE
NOT DEEP/STRONG ENOUGH WITH IT. THE UKMET WAS THE CLOSEST WITH THE
GFS NEXT IN LINE. THE NAM WAS TOO DEEP/TOO FAR WEST WITH THE TROUGH.
OVERALL THE UKMET AND GFS WERE THE BEST.

AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/GFS/UKMET DID ABOUT THE SAME. FROM WHERE OUR
FRONT IS COMING FROM...WOULD HAVE TO GIVE THE EDGE TO THE UKMET/GFS.
FROM WHERE OUR AIR MASS IS COMING FROM TODAY...THE MODELS WERE TOO
COOL. FROM WHERE OUR COLD AIR IS ORIGINATING FOR TUESDAYS FRONT...THE
GFS WAS DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET.

BASED ON THE INITIAL ANALYSIS...RECENT TRENDS...CURRENT FLOW PATTERN
AND THE JET BEHIND OUR INCOMING TROUGH...WILL BE STARTING INITIALLY
WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS THEN TREND TOWARD A
COMBINATION OF THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF. THE REASON I AM TRENDING
AWAY FROM THE GFS AS THE SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS THAT IT IS TOO PROGRESSIVE BASED ON THE
STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH JET BEHIND IT. AM STILL CONCERNED THAT ALL THE
MODELS ARE STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH WEST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY WITH A DRY AIR MASS
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. THIS SETS UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR A
DRAMATIC WARMUP OVER YESTERDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COOL THE LAST
FEW DAYS. SO TRENDED UP TODAYS MAXES A LITTLE. WILL HAVE WARM AIR
ADVECTION/DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR MINS ABOVE GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT. BECAUSE THE NAM IS TOO DEEP/SLOW WITH THE NORTHERN
SYSTEM...IT IS TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONT. SINCE THE GFS IS TOO
PROGRESSIVE...IT LOOKS TO BE TOO FAST. THE UKMET IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SOLUTIONS AND IS NOT THAT MUCH SLOWER THAN THE
ECMWF/SREF. CONSEQUENTLY THE UKMET IS IN THE MIDDLE ON FRONTAL
SPEED. GOING BY THAT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARLY THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST HALF BY 18Z...LEAVING THE SOUTH AND EAST THE MOST HEATING
TIME. THROUGH THE DAY...THE SREF 850 MB TEMPERATURE IS NEARLY THE
SAME AS THE UKMET. CONCERN ON HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE TEMPERATURES
IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS DO NOT THICKEN UP UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM KEEPING THE CLOUDS AT
BAY. CONTINUED CURRENT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURE AND ONLY TWEAKED BASED
ON THE ABOVE.

EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING DURING THE NIGHT.
GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP. CONSIDERING THAT...WOULD EXPECT WINDS TO
GET INTO AT LEAST THE BREEZY CATEGORY. THE NAM COULD BE TOO WINDY
BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT IS HANDLING THE UPPER SYSTEM. STRONG MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT. MAIN LIFT FROM
THE JET WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND NOT
PLENTIFUL. THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ALSO DO NOT COINCIDE. BUT AS
IS THE CASE WITH THIS KIND OF SCENARIO...A FEW FLURRIES CANNOT HELP
BE SQUEEZED OUT OF ANY AIR MASS. AS A RESULT...CURRENT WEATHER
GRIDS LOOK APPROPRIATE.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FLURRIES WILL END DURING THE MORNING AND
THEN THE COLD AIR REALLY STARTS TO SETTLE IN. COLD AIR WILL BE
MODIFIED AND WILL HAVE SOME SUNSHINE. SO DID NOT GO AS FAR AS I
POSSIBLE COULD. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE COLDNESS. SO DID ADJUST MAXES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WILL BE A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH EXTREMELY LOW DEWPOINTS...LIGHTER WINDS...AND NOT
MUCH CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BASED ON SIMILAR LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...
AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWN MAXES A LITTLE. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP ON
FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE PROBLEMS THE GFS IS HAVING ALOFT...IT WANTS
TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF KEEPS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WITH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER US AND IS MUCH
MORE REASONABLE. IT MODIFIES THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AND
IS DEFINITELY MORE APPROPRIATE TO USE FOR THE FORECAST. DID NOT GO AS
FAR AS IT INDICATED BUT DEFINITELY TRENDED MUCH COLDER FROM THE
PREVIOUS SET OF GRIDS.

THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION.

BULLER
&&

.AVIATION...
449 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. WILL HAVE A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD
PERIODICALLY WITH GENERALLY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT AROUND
10 KTS.

FOLTZ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$