FXUS61 KBGM 012353
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL
PLATEAU WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF TEXAS TONIGHT
BEFORE REACHING THE DEEP SOUTH BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPIN OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS THEN IN STORE FOR THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA BY LATE WEEK AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SOUNDINGS BECOME
INCREASINGLY DRY... AND THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS MAKE SNOW SHOWERS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING.
NCEP MODELS... LOCAL WRF AND THE NWS GREAT LAKES ENSEMBLE ALL
CONFIRM THIS TREND.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO JUST MENTION A FEW FLURRIES IN
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING... WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. BKN-OVC SC CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE OF FORECAST AREA... BUT THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE
DROP ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
QUITE A BIT TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS A STRONG SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT FROM THE REMNANT CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS
BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN
RECENT DAYS. REMNANT UPPER CIRCULATION WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING 
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE IT WILL INDUCE STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY MORNING. SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT 
WITH THE EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACK WITH MOST SHORT TERM PROGS
AGREEING THAT THE SURFACE FEATURE WILL PASS PRETTY MUCH JUST TO
OUR WEST. IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT THE GFS IS THE FURTHEST
EAST...AND TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION OF
NY...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS TAKE IT ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN SURFACE TRACK ARE
INSIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT AS FEATURE WILL HAVE ACCESS TO HIGH
AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THANKS IN PART TO A STRONG H85 LOW-LEVEL
JET OF 75 KTS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE. QUICK LOOK AT THE
305K THETA SURFACE SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ACCENT ABOVE
THE MAIN WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO WELL OVER 1.00" WHICH IS
VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALL THINGS ADD UP TO A PRETTY
DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD 1.00 TO 1.50"
STORM TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. QUICK LOOK AT MARFC
EXPERIMENTAL ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECAST MODELS INDICATE ONLY MODERATE
RIVER RISES AT BEST...WITH ALL FORECAST POINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW BANK FULL LEVELS...WHICH IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE QUICK
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE MAINTAINED A MENTION IS CHANCE
THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WRF/GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200 TO 400 JOULES OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WELL DEFINED H85
THERMAL RIDGING WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL SUPPORT
A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH FALLING
TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. 

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION SURFACES IN RESPONSE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED H85 LLJ. BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE REGION
INDICATE MIXING HEIGHTS REMAINING AROUND 2 KFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL INDICATES VALUES REMAINING
BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE INCREASES. FOR NOW...IN COLLABORATION
WITH ADJACENT OFFICES...WILL HIGHLIGHT WIND POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.
SO IN SUMMARY...A RATHER WARM...UNSEASONABLY MILD DAY IS ON TAPS
FOR THE AREA TOMORROW WITH RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AS THE EVENING HOURS PROGRESS. STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
WITH LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

STRONG SFC LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. FLOW 
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS TENDING TO LEAN MORE FROM THE SW WITH 
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BECOMING JUST MARGINAL FOR LES. HAVE TRIMMED 
BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH JUST A CHANCE OF 
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FROM 
LK ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN STEUBEN COUNTY 
OFF OF LAKE ERIE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH 
BANDS FCST TO REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF CENTRAL NY. 
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS/SUN AND CHC FLURRIES IN NY...WITH DRY WX AND 
SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ACROSS NEPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. 0Z AND 06Z GFS CREATED SOME 
EXCITEMENT WITH A COASTAL STORM BRINGING SYNOPTIC SNOWS TO THE CWA. 
THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FARTHER EAST BUT STILL BRUSHES THE EASTERN CWA 
WITH PRECIP. GOING WITH HPC THINKING THAT THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH 
TO THE EAST AND NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS IS INDICATING...THUS 
PRECIP WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA. THE NEW EURO JUST CAME IN AND 
WHILE IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING THIS LOW...VS. 
THE PREVIOUS RUN...IT IS STILL WEAKER THAN THE GFS AND WOULD KEEP 
ANY PRECIP TO OUR EAST.

PUTTING THAT TO THE SIDE OUR FOCUS WITH THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS TO IMPACT OUR CWA FOR THE 
SEASON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT VEERS MORE TOWARD 280/290 FROM 
MID SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. DELTA T'S APPROACH 
20 DURING THIS STRETCH WITH MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. THIS 
FLOW FAVORS LAKE SNOWS ACROSS OUR SNOWBELTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN 
ONEIDA COUNTY ALONG WITH NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY. STILL A WAYS OUT 
BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO MENTION LIKELY POPS 
FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THESE AREAS.

WE REMAIN CHILLY ENOUGH FOR LAKE SNOWS TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE WHERE SO 
I KEPT POPS AT CHANCE FOR NOW. BEST BET WOULD STILL BE ON A 
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RAIN MAKER LATE 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A TRACK TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KELM WHERE SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT FOG. OVERNIGHT MINS AT KELM ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP JUST BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMP...THUS SOME LIGHT
FOG IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE RIVER TEMPS NOW NEAR 40F...AND THE
FOLIAGE OFF THE TREES...IFR FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

LAKE CLOUDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS
AS WINDS BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST. A BKN TO OVC
DECK AROUND 5KFT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 05Z FROM KELM NORTH AS THIS
HAPPENS. AFTER THAT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY OUT
OF THE SOUTH WILL BECOME GUSTY BY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS.
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...MVFR RAIN. CHC IFR. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THUR....MVFR/IFR. GUSTY WINDS. AM RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS.
THUR NGT...VFR AREAS MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME.
FRI...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME EARLY.
SAT/SUN...VFR. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE SNOW BANDS VCNTY KRME/KSYR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CMG
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...CMG/JAB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HEDEN