FXUS62 KJAX 051443
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
943 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NE
WITH STRONG CORE OF UPPER JET. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SWATH OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR AT UPPER LEVELS IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST. RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE RGN TO UPR JET AND
A STALLED FRONT CONTINUE S OF FORECAST AREA WITH CONVECTION STILL
ACTIVE THERE...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT OUR AREA. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
FROM JAX/TAE SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BELOW 500MB AND OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN REMAINING EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
ROUGHLY FROM HAZLEHURST AND HOMERVILLE TO PERRY FL. THUS RAIN
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM W TO E THRU EARLY AFTN. HAVE TWEAKED SKY AND
POPS GRIDS TO SHOW TRANSITION FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE RAIN LATE MORN
THEN KEPT 10-15% ALONG THE COAST INTO EARLY AFTN. BREAKS IN CLOUDS
WILL APPEAR DURING THE AFTN AND CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN 40S UNTIL AFTER LUNCH
THEN RISE INTO MID 50S WITH PEAKS OF SUN IN AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS ARE TRANSITIONING FROM IFR TO MVFR AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 2-3KFT UNTIL 17Z-18Z. DURING THE AFTN CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING AROUND SUNSET. WILL
RE-EVALUTE THE CIGS BEFORE ISSUING THE 18Z PKG AS IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDS THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDS ARE NOTED AT ST AUGUSTINE BUOY WITH NW WINDS
23G27KT. SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND TO INCREASING WINDS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT DURING THE AFTN. SCA HEADLINES
WILL CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC RGN. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  33  57  42 /  50   0   0  10 
SSI  57  42  59  49 /  70   0   0  20 
JAX  57  36  60  47 /  70   0   0  20 
SGJ  58  43  63  53 /  80   0   0  20 
GNV  57  34  63  47 /  70   0   0  10 
OCF  59  36  64  49 /  70   0   0  10 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA 
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA 
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST 
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MKT/PK