FXUS63 KMPX 260529
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1129 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.AVIATION... /06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

OCCLUDED FRONT HAS JUST PUSHED NORTH OF KRWF...KMSP AND KEAU
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING STRONG CAA TO COMMENCE.
THIS HAS CHANGED THE RAIN TO SNOW. THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH KRNH AROUND 06Z AND KSTC AROUND 10Z. ANOTHER SURGE OF
STRONG FORCING CURRENTLY OVER EAST CENTRAL MN THROUGH NW WI WILL
MOVE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW FOR
KAXN...KSTC...KRWF AND FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMSP
AND KRNH. IMPROVEMENT FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AS
DRYING OCCURS ON THE MID LEVEL THETA SURFACES. PROBLEM AREA WILL
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN MN WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PERSISTS WITH
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY FOR KAXN AND KRWF.

KMSP...BOUNDARY NOW NORTH OF THE AIRPORT WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
FALLING TEMPERATURES. TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF THEN CEILINGS/VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR AS
COLDER AIR ALLOWS FOR LARGER TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS. WINDS WILL
BACK TO THE SE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THEN TO THE NE DURING THE DAY.
SOME POTENTIAL THAT VFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY OUT. INDICATED BKN MVFR
CEILINGS WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING. 

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/

MESSY AND VERY COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM LOSING IT MAIN PUNCH...BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.
TRIMMED BACK THE HEADLINES SOMEWHAT LATE THIS MORNING IN EASTERN
CWA...AND HAVE CUT BACK ON MORE HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.

SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING STEADILY NW ACROSS IOWA TODAY 
AND IS NOW NEAR FORT DODGE. IT HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 987 MB. WITH PRESSURE FALLS STILL WEST OF SFC LOW IT WILL
PROBABLY TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST BEFORE UPPER LOW PULLS IT BACK
EAST. VERY WELL DEFINED VIGOROUS VORT MAX WHICH ROTATED AROUND
UPPER LOW IS NOW NEAR ST. JAMES AND CONTINUING TO PUSH WNW.
ANOTHER WEAKER VORT PUSHING ACROSS ILLINOIS IS EXPANDING ANOTHER
AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS SW WI WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CWA LATER THIS
EVENING. WARM WEDGE OF AIR ACROSS WC WI INTO E MN WHICH HAS
PESTERED US WITH A MIX WILL DISAPPEAR THIS EVENING AS COOLER AIR
WRAPS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SURFACE TEMPS IN NE IA HAVE FALLEN FROM
THE MID 30S INTO THE UPPER 20S LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WE MAINTAIN
SOME WEAK BUT PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERNIGHT ACROSS N INTO
WC MN. THIS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW...THUS WILL
MAINTAIN THE WARNING IN WC MN. WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL
ALSO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING OR DRIFTING NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. 
DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR A SWATH OF COUNTIES ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO SC MN FOR 1-3 INCHES SNOW...AND REMOVED HEADLINES
FROM THE TC METRO TO AEL THEN EWRD ACRS WC WI. MAY SEE AN INCH OR
SO ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT.

-SN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA OF SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
FILLS AND WOBBLES AROUND WISCONSIN. RATHER UNUSUAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS WITH COLDEST AIR NEAR THE CORE OF LOW
PRESSURE...SO TONIGHT'S MINS AND TOMORROWS MAX TEMPS COOLEST IN SE
MN INTO WI. 

WITH A FORMIDABLE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA TEMPERATURES COULD
TUMBLE...BUT WILL WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH WILL LIMIT FALLS. 

WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS AREA WED/THURS WILL
BRING CHC -SN...MAINLY TO NE CWA. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
     DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-REDWOOD-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
     YELLOW MEDICINE.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BLUE 
     EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MARTIN-
     MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RENVILLE-
     SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-WATONWAN-WRIGHT.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/BAP