FXAK67 PAJK 262316
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
216 PM AKST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DEPICTING HIGHLY DEFINED CLOUD EDGE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE
ISLANDS NORTH ACROSS THE DIXON ENTRANCE...ZONES 28 AND 29...AND
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. HAVE REPORTS OF SOME SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE CONTINUED
THAT TREND IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALSO HAVE A
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OUT OF CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA
SO HAVE MENTION OF GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF INTERIOR PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS WELL AS LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER
MISTY FJORDS FOR TONIGHT. CONSIDERED WINDY WORDING FOR ZONE
29 BUT BELIEVE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS AT A MAXIMUM RIGHT NOW
AND GREY ISLET IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DIMINISHING WINDS.
WIND SHELTERED AREAS OF MISTY FJORDS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF
RADIATIONAL FOG FORMING OVERNIGHT UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT
AM NOT EXPECTED ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  

THE PRECIPITATION LINE FAIRLY WELL BISECTS THE PANHANDLE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE NORTH OVER THE
COURSE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED AS POP AND QPF NUMBERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SO SNOW NOT SO
MUCH OF AN ISSUE ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR ZONE 19 DUE TO A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING RAIN FROM ABOUT
KLUKWAN EAST INTO HAINES. MODEL UPPER AIR PROFILES ARE INDICATING
A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT AROUND 33 DEGREES FROM AROUND 2500
FEET AND BELOW. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THE SURFACE FORECAST BELOW
FREEZING...FELT CONTINUING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THE MOST
EXPEDITIOUS AND LEAST CONFUSING WAY TO DISSEMINATE THIS
INFORMATION.

AS FOR MARINE WINDS AND SEAS...HAVE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AT THE
START OF THIS EVENING FOR BOTH CLARENCE STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND.
EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH IN THESE LOCATIONS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...HAVE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL ALONG THE OUTER COAST
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
NEAR CAPE SUCKLING.

&&

.LONG TERM...MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AROUND MIDWEEK. LATER PART OF
THE WEEK I USED MAINLY HPC GUIDANCE WHILE BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS
MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE OPERATIONAL GFS THROUGH END OF NEXT
WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY EVENING BASED MORE ON THE NAM WHICH
AS GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. 

WEAKENING FEATURE OF IN THE SHORT TERM FINALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND WILL ROTATE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. I THINK
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SHEER OUT OVER THE OUTER WATERS OR
HAVE A VERY WEAK FEATURE LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE PANHANDLE
THURSDAY OR SO.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE MID
PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO USHER IN THE NEW YEAR OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY REMAIN
DRY IF NOT PULL IN SOME COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
INTERIOR.

CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD OVER THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST
PACKAGE... AND AVERAGE OR SO TOWARDS THE LATER STAGES.  

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-035-036-041>043-051-052. 

&&

$$

FRITSCH/BEZENEK