FXUS64 KFWD 060314
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
914 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.AVIATION...
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LOWER VISIBILITIES AND BROUGHT VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AND LOWER CEILINGS IN A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER WITH
THE 03Z TAF UPDATES. NEWLY ARRIVING 00Z NAM AND THE 02Z LAMP
GUIDANCE BOTH CONTINUE EARLIER MODEL TRENDS OF IFR CEILINGS AT ALL
METROPLEX TAF SITES AND KACT BY AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. ALSO
INTRODUCED PROB30 FOR -DZ IN THE 20Z-24Z TIME FRAME SUNDAY. WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH STILL LOOKS TO AFFECT METROPLEX TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND 09Z AND WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE EXTENDED
6-HOUR TIME FRAME IN THE KDFW TAF WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
07
&&
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. DEWPOINTS IN
THE EASTERN CWA ARE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH UPPER TEENS TOWARDS
PARIS AND SULPHUR SPRINGS. WINDS IN THE EAST WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS OVERNIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT IDEAL
RADITATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS..STILL THINK PARIS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 20S TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID
30S.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. OUR WESTERN ZONES
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO STAY
ABOVE 10 KNOTS. DEWPOINTS IN THIS REGION ARE IN THE LOWER 30S WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. RAISED THE LOWS
IN THE WESTERN ZONES A DEGREE OR TWO AND AM ONLY EXPECTED UPPER
30S AT BEST. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
85/NH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009/
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH CLOUDS
FROM WEST TX ALREADY SPREADING EWD IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SWINGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN SW CONUS. 30-40 KT LLJ IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
INDUCE SOME MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN MAINLY OVER THE ERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
7-7.5 DEG C LAPSE RATES ABOVE SLOWLY WEAKENING CAPPING INVERSION MAY
ALLOW FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE...SYSTEM WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
ARRIVING BY MONDAY.
AS WHAT IS COMMON WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ESPECIALLY STRONG DURING
THE COOL SEASON...THE RAPID TRANSITION OF LEE-CYCLOGENESIS AND
FOLLOWING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TUES/WED AND
FRI/FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES MAINLY OVER ERN PARTS OF
TEXAS DURING THOSE PERIODS WITH COLD WEATHER OCCURRING DURING
FRONTAL PASSAGES ON MONDAY...WEDNESDAY...THEN FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY.
OTHER DAYS IN BETWEEN WILL SEE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
AT THIS TIME...NO WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE
SYSTEMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST WERE MADE.
05/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 36 48 36 47 43 / 0 30 10 5 30
WACO, TX 36 49 37 50 45 / 5 40 10 5 30
PARIS, TX 29 44 36 49 39 / 5 50 30 5 50
DENTON, TX 35 50 34 46 42 / 0 20 10 5 20
MCKINNEY, TX 34 45 35 48 42 / 0 30 10 5 30
DALLAS, TX 36 47 38 49 45 / 5 30 10 5 30
TERRELL, TX 34 45 38 51 44 / 0 40 20 5 40
CORSICANA, TX 35 49 39 50 45 / 5 50 10 10 40
TEMPLE, TX 36 50 38 51 46 / 5 40 10 5 40
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07/85
