FXUS64 KMEG 261540
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AT 9 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP TO THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. DECIDED TO UP FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY A CATEGORY BASED ON TRENDS. MIGHT BE TOO
CONVERSATIVE ON THIS UPDATE.
OKULSKI
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN H5 LOW CENTER SLOWLY TRACKING
NORTH ALONG THE WISCONSIN ILLINOIS BORDER. SECONDARY ILL DEFINED CENTER
OF CIRCULATION ALSO SEEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ROTATING
SOUTHWARD. CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH HAS NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND
CONVERGENCE...DESPITE THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS SHOULD PERSIST
TODAY ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST AND FAIRLY BREEZY AS THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
GRADIENT REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER FINALLY GETS A PUSH AND MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SO A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND WEAK CAA IS
EXPECTED INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH.
COOL WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AS AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF H5 RIDGE.
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH MAY GET HERE AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
OVERRUNNING INCREASES AHEAD OF A NEW WESTERN GULF LOW. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE STORM...
BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THEN SCOOTING IT EAST
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD REACH THE FAR NORTH COUNTIES IN THE CWA...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL CHANGE THE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ON THE FLIP
SIDE...THE GFS REMAINS THE COLDER OF THE TWO MODELS...WITH
PRECIPITATION STAYING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AND
KEEPING THE RAIN AND SNOW LINE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WENT
WITH MORE OF A ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE THINKING THAT TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR A WINDOW OF ALL RAIN. AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS ON THURSDAY A BRIEF WINTRY MIX WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AS THE COLDER AIR GETS DRAWN INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW.
FURTHER OUT ON DAY SEVEN AND EIGHT MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WITH A CLOSED H5 LOW AGAIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE...AND OCCASIONAL GETTING
CLIPPED FROM WEAKER SURFACE SYSTEMS PIVOTING THROUGH THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY.
JAB
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TUP. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT JBR...MKL...AND MEM AFTER 06Z SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. NO RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
AT JBR TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PERSISTS. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 47 28 42 27 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 45 26 39 25 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 43 26 38 26 / 10 10 10 10
TUP 48 27 45 26 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
