FXUS63 KICT 302337
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
537 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE EARLY ON TUESDAY AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING CEILINGS TO
AROUND 8000 FEET AGL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS TX AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. DO EXPECT A
COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP
OF THE KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES BY AROUND 00Z/WED...BUT THIS BEYOND
THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
KETCHAM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WEAK RETURN FLOW THAT DEVELOPED
TODAY...DRY AIR AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT PREDAWN FALL IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.
TUE-WED:
BELIEVE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH 0000 UTC
WED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP AFTER 0000 UTC WITH
BETTER CHANCES SOUTH/EAST OF ICT. COMBO OF UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK
MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH WESTERN EDGE OF
RETURN MOISTURE TO BRING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO ROUGHLY
SOUTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST
METHODS IN AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BRIEFLY MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WED MORNING IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM
SURFACE/SOIL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL SNOW GROWTH ZONE LAPSE
RATES...SHOULD ONLY SEE SMALL FLAKES AND WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON WED WITH HIGHS OF 35-40 AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
WED NIGHT-THU:
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET FOR THU
MORNING. WITH STRONG INVERSION AND LIMITED MIXING...HIGHS ON THU
WILL ONLY STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. FAR
SOUTHEAST KS MAY REACH THE UPPER 30S.
FRI-MON:
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIATION IN UPPER EVOLUTION. SEEMS LIKELY
THAT AIRMASS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY DRY AT THE ONSET WITH RIDGE
CLOSEBY. WOULD PREFER TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR
MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL FOR SURFACE FLOW BUT
CONSENSUS MAY DICTATE OTHERWISE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWEST
PER EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS MODEL OR
ZONAL PER GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL. EITHER WAY...TRADITIONALLY
ALL MODELS ARE TOO QUICK MODIFYING AIRMASS AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. ALSO SUSPECT GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL IS TOO
MOIST LATE SUN/MON WITH RETURN FLOW. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. -HOWERTON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 29 55 34 39 / 0 10 20 10
HUTCHINSON 26 55 31 37 / 0 10 10 10
NEWTON 29 54 30 37 / 0 10 10 10
ELDORADO 27 54 31 38 / 0 10 20 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 32 54 34 40 / 0 10 30 10
RUSSELL 27 58 26 36 / 0 10 10 10
GREAT BEND 27 57 28 36 / 0 10 10 0
SALINA 29 58 30 38 / 0 10 10 10
MCPHERSON 29 56 30 37 / 0 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 35 54 34 41 / 0 10 40 40
CHANUTE 32 53 33 39 / 0 10 40 30
IOLA 32 53 33 39 / 0 10 30 20
PARSONS-KPPF 33 54 33 40 / 0 10 40 40
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
