FXUS64 KFWD 150522 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1122 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF PACKAGE
COLD FRONT HAS NOW PROGRESSED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND IT. NORTH WINDS AT 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS OCCURRING NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN
OVERCAST SKIES AROUND 050 AT KACT. BY 15/09Z...EXPECT THE
CEILINGS TO LOWER TO AROUND 025-030 AND REMAIN IN MVFR THROUGH MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES ACROSS THE SE THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS...WHERE
SOME OVERRUNNING AND CLOUD COVER ARE PERSISTING AND HOLDING UP COLD
FRONT PUSH SOMEWHAT. WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND ADD PATCHY FOG. ALSO RAISED TEMPS BACK TOWARD THE MID 40S...AS MAIN
CAA WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK DOWN THAT WAY. OTHERWISE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AND DON'T FORESEE ANY FUTURE UPDATES.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SWITCHED THE WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ACTUAL FRONT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ALONG A LINE NEAR PARIS TO DFW TO COMANCHE AS INDICATED BY
THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
BE OUT OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING.
THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...THE ELEVATED FRONT
WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO MOVE THROUGH AND AT 6Z TONIGHT THE 850 FRONT
SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF WACO. AHEAD OF THE 850 FRONT...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL SURGE ON TOP OF THE SURFACE TO 850 FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PROVIDE POCKETS OF WEAK LIFT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER AND
AM NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF AN ATHENS
TO TEMPLE LINE AS THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL MUCH COOLER THAN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WACO HAS HIT 79 DEGREES TODAY WHICH IS ONE
DEGREE SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1995. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT...HAVE A FREEZE NEAR THE RED
RIVER...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH UNDER THE LOW CLOUDS. FOR TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THERE ARE MAJOR
DISCREPANCIES IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE
ALL CONSISTENT IN DROPPING A TROUGH DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGING FROM THERE ON. THE GFS
RETROGRADES THE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST AND KEEPS A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US ON FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SEND A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE AIRMASS
MODIFYING BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING. THE ECMWF
RETROGRADES THE LOW BUT DEVELOPS A STRONG TROUGH FURTHER WEST
WHICH OPENS UP THE DOOR FOR BITTER COLD AIR WITH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND ONLY IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP...BUT UNDERCUT MEXMOS FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE EXTENDED.
85/NH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 35 45 31 52 35 / 5 5 0 5 5
WACO, TX 40 47 32 52 35 / 10 5 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 32 45 29 50 33 / 10 5 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 31 43 27 52 33 / 5 5 0 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 31 45 27 50 32 / 5 5 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 36 45 32 52 37 / 10 5 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 36 47 31 52 35 / 10 5 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 38 49 33 52 37 / 10 5 0 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 41 48 34 53 37 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/05
