FXUS65 KABQ 151840
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...
LAST MINUTE MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE JUST A FEW FIRST PERIOD
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS AND TO ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO FEATURE LESS
CLOUDINESS. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009...
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT HAS FINALLY EMERGED FROM A STORMY PATTERN.
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR THE WEST TEXAS BORDER. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END AROUND
SUNRISE. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES INTO TEXAS. SUBSIDENCE WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY. IT
WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MILDER ACROSS MOST LOCALES EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS HAS FILTERED IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT CLAYTON WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AND WILL BE DEPENDANT ON HOW LONG THIS AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DO EXPECT
THIS SHALLOW AIRMASS TO MIX OUT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER
PATTERN DRY AND MILD INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE ECMWF RUN BACKED
OFF ON ITS PRIOR SOLUTION OF A RATHER BULLISH TROUGH PASSAGE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS BRINGING
A COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE BUT SHUNTING THE BULK OF THIS
SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST WITH ONLY MINOR EFFECTS OVER THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT DID
LOWER EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST.
UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE NEXT MONDAY. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATING A PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE STORMY CONDITIONS
APPROACHING NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER STRONG TROUGH AND COLD AIRMASS TO INVADE MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BEARS WATCHING.
KW
.AVIATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SO LOOK FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THERE. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
AREAS HAVE ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING VIA STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE BIG CHALLENGE WAS PREDICTING WHICH
TERMINAL SITE BETWEEN FMN AND GUP WOULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AT
THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION...GUP CIG DROPPING LIKE A ROCK AND
EXPECT SOME SORT OF BR OR FG TO FOLLOW. STILL THINKING THAT FMN WILL
ALSO SEE SOME IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP A LITTLE LATER AS WELL. WILL
REFLECT THAT IN THE UPCOMING TERMINAL FORECAST UNLESS SOMETHING
CHANGES DRASTICALLY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS
TO IMPROVE BOTH SITES BY LATE MORNING. TCC IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING BUT WOULD BE SHORTER IN
DURATION AND NOT BE AS BAD AS CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT A LOT OF FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. MODELS BECOMING A
LITTLE MORE INLINE WITH THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD.
VENTILATION REMAINS THE BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS...CONDITIONS DONT IMPROVE MUCH
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT APPEARS THAT VENTILATION WILL BE THE BEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN IMPROVE SOME
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY. EXPECT A SIMILAR RESULT FOR
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGHER RIDGES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. OVERALL THOUGH...SURFACE WIND FLOW WONT BE
TOO STRONG THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN WINDS PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO AN INITIAL WEAK TO MODERATE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ATTACHED TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON THURSDAY. A FOLLOW
UP STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE COOLER PUSH ON FRIDAY SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND RAISE DAYTIME HUMIDITY READINGS 10
TO 25 PCT FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL PUSH APPEARS TO BE THE DEEPEST ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS SO THERE IS SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
DOESNT LOOK TO BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. THE LONG RANGE
MODEL...ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN MORE BULLISH FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOW
TRENDING CLOSER TO THE DRIER GFS SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING EVER SO
SLOWLY FOR A DRIER SCENARIO DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT THE NEXT
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST AREA QUICKER AND THUS
ALLOW AN OVERALL TREND IN RISING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
CAVEAT TO THAT WOULD BE WITHIN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND CANYONS FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION DURING THIS PERIOD
WOULD MOST LIKELY LOWER DUE TO A WELL ESTABLISHED INVERSION. THIS IN
TURN...WOULD KEEP SOME OF THE VALLEY TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THEY
WOULD OTHERWISE BE. SOME WIND WOULD BE FOUND TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WOULD KEEP WINDS MUTED.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEPICTING A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME
DISTINCT DIFFERENCES ON HOW THAT BREAK DOWN OCCURS. THUS THE LONGER
RANGE CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW. WITH THAT BEING SAID...INCREASES IN
WIND AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD OCCUR WITH THAT BREAK
DOWN.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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