FXUS62 KTAE 260740
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DRY COUPLE OF DAYS ON TAP
FOR THE TRI-STATE REGION AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH.
THIS IS HELPING PUSH A DRY REINFORCING FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR MEMPHIS BUT SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY FRIDAY MORNING. 00Z GUIDANCE
TRENDED UP A COUPLE DEGREES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
THINKING THAT THE GRADIENT WILL KEEP MIXING IN PLAY OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPS TO REACH THE MID 30S MOST AREAS...LOWER 30S IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. SCATTERED FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH.
BY SATURDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE TO BE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES FORECAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY
MORNING. A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS WITH
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR AN
HOUR OR SO AROUND SUNRISE.
NEXT SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST FROST ADVISORY FOR WESTERN ZONES FOR
TONIGHT. FURTHER ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLE FREEZE WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN A
DIGGING THROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SEND A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR CWA MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY THE GFS
DEVELOPS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS
LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND LIFT NORTHEAST TO THE LOUISIANA
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FIRST WITH THE WARM FRONT THEN THE COLD
FRONT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS ALL THE
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE
IF THAT TREND CONTINUES ON THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. RAIN SHOULD
END FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN
ON THURSDAY. ASIDE FROM A CHILLY START SUNDAY MORNING...MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR REMOVED FROM SEASONAL
LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FILTERING IN OVER SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND IS GENERATING PROBLEMS IN THE WAY OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT ABY...VLD AND TLH. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THESE TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR BY
DAYBREAK. AFTER SUNRISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT SFC
WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY OUT OF THE N-NW AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
&&
.MARINE...SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER
THE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY WE WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF OUR FLORIDA ZONES EXCEPT
LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE COUNTIES DUE TO EXPECTED LONG DURATIONS OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL FLORIDA
ZONES FRIDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 66 35 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 66 41 61 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 63 34 60 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 64 34 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 65 35 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 68 35 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 41 60 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LEON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...
GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...
JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...
WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS
FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL
OUT TO 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON
BEACH OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO
DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO
APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA
TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
CAMP/BARRY
