FXUS63 KFGF 062104
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...
CONCERS REMAIN CLOUD AND TEMP TRENDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHEAST ONTARIO AND THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KEEP THE FCST AREA IN THE 500 MB MEAN TROUGH
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW SFC UP TO 250 MB. QUITE A BIT
OF MOISTURE IN THIS TROUGH WITH HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING
SOUTHWEST AROUND UPPER LOW AND QUITE A BIT OF LINGERING 850 MB
MOISTURE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN LOW SO THAT ANY BREAKS THAT FORM
FILL IN WITH THIN STRATOCU. WOULD EXPECT SOME CHANCE THAT CLEARING
WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT IN SPOTS...BUT WHERE AND HOW LONG IS
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW HOURS OUT AT BEST.
CONSIDERING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM INTO MANITOBA WILL
MAINTAIN GENERAL IDEA THRU MONDAY AT LEAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND FLURRIES. SFC HIGH TO BUILD A BIT MORE INTO ERN ND MON NIGHT
AND TUESDAY AND 850 MB PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS INDICATE A BETTER
CHC AT MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESP FROM
12Z RGEM. BUT UNCERTAINITY KEEPS ME FROM DROPPING LOWS TOO MUCH.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE DIFFICULT...AND AREAS THAT WILL CLEAR
OUT FOR A TIME WILL DROP TO 10 BELOW ZERO OR LOWER WHILE SOME
SPOTS IN THICKER CLDS WILL STAY IN THE 10-15 RANGE. KEPT THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WHICH WAS WHAT THE PREV FSTS HAD WHICH
ARE LOWS FOR SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DVL BASIN TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL BE WATCH THE BIG STORM IMPACT
AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR NRN EDGE
OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MAY IMPACT FAR SE ND AND PARTS OF WCNTRL-
NCNTRL MN. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE MAY HELP PRODUCE CLEARING AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
IN.  

.LONG TERM [THU-SUN]...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH THE 
PERSISTENT TROUGH NEAR THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST. 
HARD TO SAY THAT IT WILL BE ENTIRELY DRY AS THERE COULD BE SOME 
FLURRIES HERE AND THERE...BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN SOMETHING LIKE THAT 
DOWN THIS FAR OUT. MAIN QUESTIONS LOOK TO REVOLVE AROUND TEMPS. 
MODELS ARE WAFFLING A LITTLE ON THE POTENTIAL SLIGHT WARMING TREND 
THAT HAD APPEARED BY SAT/SUN. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE 
TRENDING COOLER NOW WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS WARMER. JURY 
STILL OUT ON HOW THAT WILL WORK OUT. 

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF CLEARING HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN A CHALLENGE TO PICK OUT AND 
FORECAST. LARGEST HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS NOW OVER THE KDVL REGION AND 
IT IS TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE KGFK AREA. WILL MONITOR THRU THE 
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SEE IF THIS IS ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF OR NOT. 
TREND HAS BEEN CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES AND THIS SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO 
GO. WINDS LOOK TO STAY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE/GODON