FXUS62 KMLB 012051
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO LIFTS N/NE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AS IT SHIFTS NORTH TONIGHT...MAINLY FROM LAKE TO VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UP TO
AROUND 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THIS STRONGER SLIGHTLY ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK/LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST.
WED/THU...
WX ELEMENTS REMAIN IN PLAY FOR A STRONG/SVR CONVECTIVE EVENT TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH THAT MAY EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. A +100KT H25 JET MAX OVER NRN MEXICO WILL FEED A SFC
LOW THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE WRN GOMEX ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE JET WILL PUSH THE STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY UP THE ERN
SEABOARD...BOTH GFS/NAM MODELS PLACE THE CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND/ERN
CANADA BY 00Z FRI.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S BY DAYBREAK WED...THEN TO THE S/SW THRU WED
AFTN AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS THRU THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. WHILE THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOCUS THE
BRUNT OF ANY STRONG/SVR WX N OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A MARGINAL SVR THREAT
ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. INDEED...
BOTH GFS/NAM MODELS INDICATE A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT OVER
E CENTRAL FL BTWN 18Z WED THRU 12Z THU. AS SUCH...WILL ADD ENHANCED
TSTM WORDING ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL FOCUS THE PRIMARY THREAT BTWN 03/00Z-03/06Z WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS AREAWIDE. THE SVR WX THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE PREDAWN HRS
THU MRNG AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM RACES UP THE ERN
SEABOARD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SO FAR NORTH SO QUICKLY THAT IT
WILL ABANDON THE SRN EXTENSION OF IS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT...
LEAVING IT TO STALL OVER THE CWA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DLM RIDGE OVER
THE NW CARIB. SCT/NMRS POPS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE THRU THU NIGHT.
EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD HAS BECOME LESS CERTAIN DUE TO SLOWING
OF THE FRONT OVER S FL AND LIFTING OF BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH ON
A POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING SITUATION (INDICATED BY GFS AND PARTIALLY BY
LTST ECMWF AS WELL). HAVE INTRODUCED POP IN LATE WEEK FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR STRATIFORM RAINS FRI AND APPROACH OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW TOWARD THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WILL THEN SEE
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA FORMING AHEAD OF A MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO
W FLORIDA LATE WED AFTERNOON. MAY SEE TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN ANY OF THIS
AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE S/SE
TOMORROW AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BECOMING S/SE AROUND 20-25 KTS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOWER TO RESPOND BUT WILL BUILD TO 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WED.
WILL THEREFORE ISSUE A SCA FOR THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE
TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO LATE WED NIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 67 81 63 70 / 20 40 80 40
MCO 65 81 64 73 / 10 40 80 40
MLB 70 81 66 72 / 10 30 80 60
VRB 71 81 69 74 / 10 30 80 60
LEE 65 81 61 71 / 20 50 80 40
SFB 66 82 64 73 / 20 40 80 40
ORL 66 82 64 73 / 10 40 80 40
FPR 71 81 70 75 / 10 30 80 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
