FXUS63 KPAH 150850
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 AM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE COLD AIR HAS BEEN LAGGING BEHIND. A FRIGID AIR
MASS CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE HEART OF THE NATION...AND THIS
MODIFIED AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE IN OUR DIRECTION
TODAY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN FULL FORCE TODAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. ALONG WITH THIS SURGE OF
COLD AIR...CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
TODAY AS THAT OCCURS...BUT BY TONIGHT...WE SHOULD BE CLEAR...CALM
AND COLD AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER US. WILL GO WITH THE COLDER MOS
NUMBERS AS THESE SEEM MOST REASONABLE SEEING THE DEGREE OF COLD
AIR THAT IS HEADED OUR WAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT COLD TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING SOME WARMING TO TAKE PLACE BY THURSDAY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY SHOULD RAMP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AND IMPACTING THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUNDINGS DEFINITELY INDICATE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND COLD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THIS SYSTEM IS SLOW TO MOVE AND LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE WITH US
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WELL...BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES. AGAIN SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY BE POSSIBLE. SOME
PRETTY COLD AIR ALOFT SURGES DOWN INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WHICH
WILL SPELL A COLD DAY ON SATURDAY. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID LEVEL POLAR VORTEX ROTATING DOWN
TOWARD US BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
MODELS ARE NOT REMAINING REAL CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
VORTEX. NONETHELESS...THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE CLOUDY AND
ABNORMALLY COLD...WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FROM TIME TO
TIME...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE UPPER LEVEL WAVES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH LATE MORNING OVER
SW INDIANA AND NW KENTUCKY. ABOVE THE LOW CLOUD DECK...HIGH CLOUDS 
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS 
WILL BECOME NORTH 8-12 KTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TO ABOUT 5 KTS 
TONIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$