FXUS62 KTAE 102114
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 PM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT).
THE SATELLITE HAS BEEN INDICATING A CLEARING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. CLOUD DECK THAT AFFECTED THE REGION EARLIER HAS PUSHED EWD
AND SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OUR
REGION LAST NIGHT IS NOW LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FL...AND YET
ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER LOW FORMING IN THE GULF WILL ADD TO OUR CHANCES FOR
PRECIP BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD ONLY REACH MID TO UPPER 50S AS A MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MASS HAS INFILTRATED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH LATE LAST NIGHT. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL
CAUSE DEWPOINTS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO
DROP DRASTICALLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...NOT ISSUING A FREEZE
WARNING TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH TEMPS MAY DROP BELOW 32 DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT...MOST
AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS RIGHT ABOVE FREEZING. THE ONLY AREAS WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF THE TEMPS FALLING BELOW FREEZING ARE THE NORTHERNMOST
COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEFINITELY BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE HELD BACK BY A
COMBINATION OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING COOL
ADVECTION...AND SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS COULD INDEED BE SET IF
TEMPERATURES ARE HELD IN THE LOWER 40S AS INDICATED BY THE MAV
GUIDANCE.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AND ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS.
THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCED ASCENT WILL OCCUR
BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OUR REGION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE AT
RECEIVING A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 2 TO 3 INCHES TOTAL BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE ON SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).
THE GFS...GEM AND EURO ALL MAINTAIN THE ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A
POTENTIALLY HEAVY OVERRUNNING RAINFALL EVENT WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE. SURFACE-BASED TSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING. THE RESPITE FROM THE WET
PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL PROPEL THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECEDED BY SHWRS AND TSTORMS. THE EURO IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAN THE GFS...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE TSTORM THREAT TO FL AND THE ADJACENT MARINE AREA. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE MS
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD...USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH MON.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AT ADVISORY CRITERIA LEVELS...AND SHOULD REMAIN
HEIGHTENED UNTIL AT LEAST SAT MORNING. THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIODS
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...HOWEVER...
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT. AFTER SAT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AND REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK AFTER 06Z WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN CIGS MAY BEGIN
LOWERING TO MVFR AT PFN AND EVENTUALLY TLH.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING DOES APPEAR TO BE VERIFYING DUE TO
BRIEF RH DURATIONS AND SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ABOVE CRITERIA...SO
WILL LET THE WARNING CONTINUE AS IS. WILL CONTINUE THE WATCH AS IS
ALSO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES FCST FOR FRIDAY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY AGAIN OFFSET ANY MEANINGFUL INSOLATION BEFORE
THE CLOUD DECK RETURNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 35 46 43 54 49 / 10 20 60 80 60
PANAMA CITY 38 49 46 56 55 / 10 20 70 80 60
DOTHAN 30 48 40 49 45 / 10 10 60 80 60
ALBANY 30 48 41 49 46 / 10 10 50 80 70
VALDOSTA 34 47 43 55 49 / 0 10 60 80 70
CROSS CITY 35 53 46 67 58 / 10 20 60 70 60
APALACHICOLA 40 49 46 60 57 / 10 20 70 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TODAY TO 6 PM EST /
5 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...
CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...GADSDEN...HOLMES...INLAND
WALTON...JACKSON...LEON...LIBERTY...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALL ZONES.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM DESTIN TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AND OUT
TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES UNTIL 10 AM ET SATURDAY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...M BARRY
LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GODSEY
