FXUS64 KSHV 090335
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
935 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE ENDED FOR THE MOST PART THIS
EVENING AND THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WARM
FRONT STILL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXACT LOCATION HARD TO PINPOINT.
THERE IS A GRADUAL CHANGE IN TEMPS FROM WARM IN THE SOUTHEAST TO
QUITE COOL IN THE NORTHWEST...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION. STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH THE NORTHWEST ZONES BY
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SOME WHAT GUSTY AS THE COLD AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION...AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 MPH IN SOME AREAS.
HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE EVENING IN AREAS WHERE PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND WILL DROP AFTER MIDNIGHT ALL BUT THE EXTREME
NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS AREA COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING...AS IFR CIGS
HAVE QUICKLY ERODED ACROSS PORTIONS OF N LA WITH THE APPROACH OF A
GRAVITY WAVE THAT IS QUICKLY ADVANCING E ACROSS SCNTRL AR/NE TX
ATTM. HAVE ALSO OBSERVED BRIEF NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE GRAVITY WAVE AS WELL...ALONG WITH A 40NM WIDE
AREA OF 0.8 - 1.2KFT CIGS THAT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY CLEAR AREAS OF N LA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...IFR CIGS
PERSIST TO THE S ACROSS DEEP E TX...WITH THESE WILL BEGIN LIFTING BY
06Z. WARM FRONT STILL REMAINS DRAPED FROM NEAR CXO...TO JUST E OF
LFK...TO IER...RSN...AND GLH THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SW WINDS
AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...THIS BNDRY WILL
QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM
OKM...TO LAW...AND FDR...AFTER 06Z. THUS...EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE GRAVITY WAVE TO ERODE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN SKC
WITH UNLIMITED VSBYS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MAY
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS OVER CNTRL OK ATTM PROGRESS E ALONG/N OF THE RED
RIVER...AND COULD POSSIBLY AFFECT THE TXK/ELD TERMINALS BETWEEN
07-15Z WEDNESDAY...AND WILL AWAIT THE LATEST TRENDS BEFORE INSERTING
MENTION IN THE 06Z TAFS. WINDS WILL VEER NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE CIRRUS
INCREASE AND THICKEN FROM W TO E TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL TO END
THE TAF PERIOD. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 39 48 29 48 35 / 10 10 0 10 20
MLU 46 49 29 48 34 / 20 10 0 10 20
DEQ 31 41 22 47 33 / 10 10 0 0 20
TXK 34 44 24 46 34 / 10 10 0 0 20
ELD 38 45 25 46 34 / 20 10 0 10 20
TYR 34 44 29 49 39 / 10 10 0 0 20
GGG 36 45 29 49 37 / 10 10 0 10 20
LFK 45 55 30 51 40 / 20 10 0 10 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/15
