FXUS63 KPAH 260933
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT LIGHT PRECIP REPORTS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST 
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF MAKING 
IT SOUTH...CONTINUED WITH LOW POPS FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/FLURRIES 
TODAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER 00Z...MOISTURE WILL 
FINALLY PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO REMOVE ANY PRECIP CHANCES...AND 
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.  

AFTER A CHILLY DAY TODAY...A RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY INTO 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO UNSEASONABLY WARM 
READINGS BY SATURDAY.  CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST SATURDAY 
NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.  ECMWF...NAM AND GFS 
ALL HAVE THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO CENTRAL 
OKLAHOMA BY 12Z SUNDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE QPF SPREADING 
ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  KEPT CHANCE POPS WEST 
TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST ON SUNDAY...THEN INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR 
OUR ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.  

ON MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW PRECIP ENDING FROM WEST TO 
EAST...WITH ANY QPF EAST OF OUR REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.  GFS AND 
ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THIS IS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE 
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  FOR NOW...REMOVED POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF 
OF OUR FA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...BUT KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR 
THE SOUTHEAST HALF FOR NOW.  IF NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS CONTINUE WITH 
THIS FASTER TIMING...MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR SEASONAL READINGS ARE 
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

WITH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY...WENT WITH THE 
COOLER MET HIGHS.  WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR THE REST OF THE 
NEAR TERM.  IN THE EXTENDED...WENT A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE MEX FOR 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS/PRECIP.  STAYED 
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MEX AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE SE INTO MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY 
AROUND SUNRISE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. 
HIGHEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN THE KEVV AND KOWB AREAS.  
GUSTY WEST TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY TOP 20 MPH...ESP LATE 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

RST/GM