FXUS64 KLZK 070541
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1136 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009
.AVIATION...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE RAIN...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SLEET
ACROSS NRN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS
AND TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NRN COUNTIES WILL SEE AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS TEMPS
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...MOST MOISTURE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE TEMPS DIP THAT LOW. SO...NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SFCS
ACROSS NRN AR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009/
AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND IFR IN
SOME CASES. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF TOWARD MONDAY MORNING. BY THAT TIME...THERE COULD BE
SOME LEFTOVER LIGHT DRIZZLE GIVEN LOW CEILINGS...AND SPOTTY
FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER. LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS...BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHEAST AT 3 TO 5 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 6 TO 10 KNOTS. (46)
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SURFACE AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THICKENING
CLOUD COVER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TO ORIGINALLY FORECASTED HIGHS IN MANY
AREAS...AND AT 1 PM...ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN PORTION ARE IN THE
LOWER 40S OR COOLER.
FURTHER OUT TO THE WEST...NEAR THE PANHANDLES REGION...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH.
WEAK MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND VERY
LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN NOTED OVER NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. SO...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...LIKELY NOT AMOUNTING TO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...LIGHT
RAIN COULD BE MIXED WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING AS THE
FRONT PASSES DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AND ANY PROBLEMS WOULD BE
BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY....BUT WILL STALL ALONG THE
GULF COAST. UPLIFT WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...AND LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIP...SEE
LITTLE NEED TO INTRODUCE IT INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP COMING
TO AN END. MIGHT BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BEFORE ENDING...BUT AGAIN...NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE. WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
GRADIENT WILL RELAX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIMING ISSUES REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
STATE THURSDAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN
TO THE STATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS SHOWS A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE THE EUROPEAN SHOWS THE SYSTEM HOLDING OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURN IS SUBSTANTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND THE PRESENCE OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THIS FORECAST. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT A RAIN SNOW MIX
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH MANY UNCERTAINTIES... WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IN THE COMING
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 31 46 34 45 / 60 10 20 80
CAMDEN AR 37 53 42 49 / 50 10 40 70
HARRISON AR 33 45 31 43 / 50 10 20 70
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 52 40 48 / 50 10 40 70
LITTLE ROCK AR 35 50 39 48 / 50 10 40 90
MONTICELLO AR 40 49 41 55 / 50 20 40 90
MOUNT IDA AR 36 51 38 49 / 50 10 40 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 30 45 33 46 / 50 10 20 70
NEWPORT AR 34 46 35 45 / 60 10 30 80
PINE BLUFF AR 39 48 39 49 / 50 10 40 90
RUSSELLVILLE AR 32 49 36 47 / 50 10 30 70
SEARCY AR 33 49 34 50 / 60 10 30 90
STUTTGART AR 36 49 39 47 / 50 10 40 90
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
