FXUS64 KTSA 240112
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
712 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
A SMALL BUT STRONG LEFT-SPLIT CELL IS APPROACHING CHOCATAW COUNTY
FROM THE SOUTH.  IT EXTRAPOALTES TO BE CROSSING THE RED RIVER
DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

00Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS GRIDS SHOW -170 M2/S2 O TO 3 KM STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY AHEAD OF THE CELL INTO THE HUGO AREA.  JUST IMMEDIATELY
WEST OF THIS CELL THE ATMOSPHERE STILL APPREARS SUPPORTIVE OF
A SURFACE BASED STORM.  

THIS CELL WILL HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA
AND THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE ENHANCED IF IT CAN TAP INTO THE BETTER
AIR IMMEDIATELY TO ITS WEST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR 
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ069-
     OKZ072-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-
     ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08