FXUS63 KILX 251752
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1152 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1045 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING SINCE
HEAVY RAINS EXITED NE OF CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT CONTINUED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SANGAMON COUNTY FOR SUGAR CREEK BY THE
SPAULDING DAM UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WATER RELEASES FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE WED. DEALING WITH SEVERAL RIVERS
EITHER IN FLOOD OR FORECAST TO GO TO FLOOD THIS CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.
HAVE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DROPPING QUICKER TODAY FROM SW TO
NE AND CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS QUICKER AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TODAY NW
OF I-70 BUT SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 1 INCH. REMAINING PUDDLES ON
ROADS COULD FREEZE OVER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S.
WINDY AGAIN TODAY WITH SW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING OF HIGHER WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.
LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS INTENSE 986 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL IA WITH ITS COLD FRONT NE OF I-74 MOVING TOWARD NE IL AND
CENTRAL INDIANA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF I-57 ARE TURNING TO
LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS FROM LINCOLN SW WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
STAYING LESS THAN A HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 40S NE OF I-74 AND ALONG THE IL/IN BORDER TO THE 20S SW OF
SPRINGFIELD WITH QUINCY AND PITTSFIELD NEAR 20F. THE FREEZING LINE
IS MOVING NE PAST GALESBURG AND TAYLORVILLE. WINDY WITH SSW WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. ALOFT A VERY STRONG 524 DM
500 MB LOW WAS OVER NE KS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT OCCLUDES AND LOOPS AROUND IOWA THROUGH SAT AND 1005 MB LOW
ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER SAT AFTERNOON. ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL IL LIFTS NORTHWARD WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS KS
PIVOTS AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO IL THIS EVENING. THESE SHORT
WAVES ALONG WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON INTO
SAT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY LESS THAN 1 INCH
THIS AFTERNOON. PERHAPS UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW TONIGHT AND SAT OVER
CENTRAL IL WITH LOCAL 2 INCH AMOUNTS NW OF THE IL RIVER BY GALESBURG.
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
SW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DROPPING WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF PEORIA AND SPRINGFIELD.
HUETTL
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1150 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SAT ACROSS CENTRAL IL
AS INTENSE 986 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LOOPS BACK EAST
TO THE IA/IL BORDER BY 18Z/NOON SAT AS IT OCCLUDES WEAKENS TO
1005 MB. VERY STRONG 524 DM 500 MB LOW IN NE KS WILL LIFT NE TO
CENTRAL WI BY 18Z/NOON SAT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AND WILL
DIP DOWN TO IFR AT TIMES AS WELL AS THE VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN DEVELOPING
SAT MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE BENE AS LOW AS A HALF TO 1 MILE
LATE THIS MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS WITH CEILINGS DOWN TO AROUND
500 FET. STRONG SSW WINDS 15 TO 22 KTS WITH WITH GUSTS OF 22 TO 33 KTS
WILL PREVAIL INTO SAT.
HUETTL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 327 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
SFC LOW OVER COLUMBIA MO THIS MORNING AND HEADED NORTH AS UPPER
TROF MAINTAINS A NEGATIVE TILT. DEEP SFC LOW HAS OCCLUDED AND
REGION CAN EXPECT TO SEE THE CROSS OVER TO SNOW IN THE LATE
MORNING TO THE SW...AND THEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
NORTH AND EAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE FORECAST IS GOING QUITE
WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER A ROCKY BEGINNING AND THE MODELS ARE
STILL HANDLING IT RATHER WELL. HOLIDAY TRAVEL WILL BE WET AND
WINDY TODAY...AND MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE HOW LONG OF A DRY SLOT CAN
WE GET OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE SNOW KICKS IN...AND WILL THAT
SFC RUNOFF FREEZE...MAKING TRAVEL EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS.
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WET AND BLUSTERY AGAIN TODAY...WINDS TO 20 KTS AND GUSTING TO 30. FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING AS RIVERS COME UP...AND WATER
OVER ROADWAYS WILL STILL BE A THREAT IN THE EARLY MORNING AS
PLENTY OF RAIN IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE
DRY SLOT THAT IS SHOWING...SW OF LSX. TEMPERATURES DROPPING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND THE PRECIP BEGINS TO
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. CWA SHOULD BECOME SNOW DOMINATED BY THE
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH AT THIS POINT THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIP
WILL HAVE SUBSIDED...RATHER CONSISTENT SNOWFALL FOR TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL RESULT IN UP TO AN INCH FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND UP TO 2 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 74...THOUGH IT WILL BE OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES DROP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT AND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE FAR MORE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LOW BECOMES STAGNANT OVER THE GREAT LAKES...REMAINING NEAR
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE DUSTING OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...THOUGH STARTING LIGHT AND ENDING SUNDAY WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES IS ANTICIPATED. LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL SEE A RETURN OF FRIGID TEMPS AS THE HIGHS FOR SUN AND MON
REMAIN IN THE 20S...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM ON APPROACH FOR WEDNESDAY FROM THE SW...BRINGING MORE
PRECIP QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ051.
&&
$$
